The cherry, Yoshino.
And Love, Paris.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Softball Diamond Quotes
Country Risk Analysis in Argentina
country risk in Argentina is a concept that became popular after the 2001-2002 crisis, and from that time used to explain everything bad economic disaster that occurred in that country, low investment, falling market Internationally, the rising prices of imported goods, unemployment, lack of credit, everything was the fault of Country Risk. While it was all part of the phenomenon of crisis is necessary to individualize each event and analyze each of the variables that influence country risk indices.
The aim of this paper is to conceptualize the Country Risk (Country Risk, CR) and Political Risk (Political Risk, PR), identify that it is not an isolated phenomenon, but in a globalized world country risk in country A can affect to country B, resulting in regional contagion effects of interdependent economies. It shall, moreover, some dependent variables of the concept of country risk, such as monetary policy, sovereign debt and the weakness of democratic institutions.
will be of interest to note some political and economic events have served as milestones of ascent and descent of the IRP to monitor developments in the last decade, from the party change in the Presidency of the Nation December 10, 1999 when he took the radical Fernando De la Rúa after two periods of Peronist government of Carlos Menem, to the October 27 date of death of former President Nestor Kirchner. On both dates is perceived changes for Argentina negatively influenced positively in the IRP and have locked the key facts as the 2002 declaration of default and debt renegotiation in 2005.
In relation to the sources available to this modest work, conceptual development of the subject matter will be taken from academic sources and country risk specialists to the analysis of political events will be considered journalistic sources, and international perceptions about these facts, are considered sources of international organizations. Conceptual Approach
In this first part will be a conceptual analysis of country risk variables from the case of Argentina.
Guide International Country Risk (ICRG, for short), takes 22 components and each of them gives a maximum score to determine which sequence analysis classified the country. To do this, ordered the 22 components in three categories, Political Risk (50%), Financial Risk (25%) and Economic Risk (25%). Thus, we see that the components of political risk have twice the weight that the following two. Therefore, in the second part of this work will give more importance to them. To find out, mention them because each of them speaks for itself: government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, Conflicto externo, corrupción, Militares en Política, religión en Política, Leyeres y orden, Tensiones étnicas, Fortaleza Democrática, Calidad burocrática.
En definitiva, para diferenciar el Riesgo País del riesgo Político, se puede observar a simple vista que el Riesgo Político es simplemente la mitad del Riesgo País, por lo que no puede ser utilizado como sinónimo cómo comúnmente suele suceder.
El término Riesgo Político se refiere a las posibilidades de que las decisiones políticas o eventos sociales en un país puedan afectar al clima de negocios en el cual se encamina la pérdida de dinero por parte de los inversores o no ganan tanto como esperaban cuando hicieron investment (Howell, 2006). External debt
access to capital markets in the XX and XXI centuries has generated new questions about the litigation against sovereignty. In the sovereign debt market, countries act almost as private debtors. Argentina defaulted on U.S. $ 100 billion U.S. is the largest private debt in history. In February 2005 the Argentine Congress passed Law 26017 which prohibited the reopening of trade with non-participating bondholders not, only 76% of bondholders accepted the exchange of bonds for the 25-29% of its value, which was the result of negotiations led by Roberto Lavagna, Minister of Economy of Nestor Kirchner. In September 2006, 170,000 Italian bondholders initiated ICSID arbitration, (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, established by the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes Between States and Nationals of Other States connected to the World Bank) requiring 5.5 billion Argentina dollars in compensation. It is important to clarify that Argentina is a country that is signatory to the treaty but not ratified, at least not until 2009, according to World Bank report. Therefore, it warns Waibel (2007), to consider the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT), recipient countries can not expropriate capital, and the declaration of cessation of payments may be considered an expropriation of the value assigned to sovereign bonds. The origin of the bondholders are principally U.S., Germany and Italy, where he continues the dispute. Argentina has different terms in their BIT obligations under each of these countries (Germany, Italy and USA) and then the complexity of the arbitration.
Argentina has signed and ratified the Convention Establishing the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA for its acronym in English) but does not offer guarantees that provide ICSID. With regard to disputes relating to the debt faced Argentina in early 2009 and 46 cases are pending and 18 international, plus others that have been dismissed for reasons of jurisdiction, discontinued or suspended, according to Joseph Profaizer in a publication for the World Bank. This author questions whether Argentina will not set a precedent to change the paradigm of the execution of arbitral awards, based on international law, the other side of the default.
Perhaps we should remember that government bonds are debt instruments of a country that promises to pay principal and interest over a specified period of time on payment of a value determined in advance. Usually it is an instrument used to finance, since no default Argentina from international credit has not issued bonds. Although, with the promising negotiations with the Paris Club, some economists predict that soon the country will be able to re-issue.
Now, we must take into account the default on sovereign bonds of Argentina stated that in 2001 or the change in sovereign actions relating to a them during the debt restructuring can be potentially considered direct or indirect expropriation (Waibel , 2007). As not only the actions of 2001, but also its restructuring in 2005 that violated contractual rights of creditors may be considered with this term so strong that it triggers the CR rate: Expropriation
The Argentine peso
With the Convertibility Plan that gave the peg the Argentine peso against the U.S. dollar and choose a fixed exchange rate, it seemed a good plan when to stop hyperinflation. However, the credibility of Argentina's currency was far from being the same as the U.S. dollar, especially in the last five years when the economy began to crumble. The arguments to bind to a foreign currency is the guarantee of a discipline in monetary policy and eliminate currency risk. But it was not the case of Argentina, where bank regulation of trade, and currency risk and inflation could become a credit risk (Wolf, 2002). The financial crisis in emerging markets in 1997-1998, the Brazilian devaluation of 1999 should have resulted in a contagion effect and also devalued the currency in Argentina. However, do not faced a problem of competitiveness, especially in labor costs and there was deflation and Argentine prices fell by 3% (Wolf, 2002).
The risk increased when the Government takes more credits without the credibility or political or economic program supported him. Argentina had resisted even longer without those credits, the adjustment proposed by Ricardo Lopez Murphy (Minister of Economy, which went down in history to stay in office for just 15 days) was not so great, it would be a good choice but could not resist the political pressure (Wolf, 2002). Argentina ran out and his first option was the default second and third devaluation.
After spending sharply for the second option, and specify the third, has adopted a floating exchange rate, but in a pattern of "dirty float" it depends on the level of reserves. By adopting this scheme, Martin Redrado, was so concerned about the use of reserves to pay debt in December 2009 when the executive proposed the Bicentennial Fund, which provided the reserves, provision should only provide take the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). According to the Organic Law of Central Bank, the obligation is to maintain a constant exchange rate of the peso in relation to its exchange value in relation to the goods and services no longer in relation to other currencies.
This political intervention in exchange rate policy could undermine the stability of the country's exchange rate, which is more than a pattern of dirty floating exchange rate, economic growth has benefited the country, keeping it competitive with its neighbors and international trade in raw materials.
analysis of political events affected the political risk and country risk developments Argentina
In this second part is an analysis of the concepts seen above that affect the risk of investing in Argentina, recalling the economic and political events in this country of the last ten years they did fluctuate country risk index.
The perception of Argentine citizens is that the economy began to crumble after the Tequila effect in 1995 and worsened after the devaluation in Brazil in 1999. They had started the rumors in 1997 about a possible devaluation of Brazil, affecting directly in the stock market falling sharply. Country risk Argentine exceed 500 basis points in 1998, the Russian default and devaluation in Brazil in 1999. At this point there is a cessation of capital inflows and foreign investment. It was expected the end of the Convertibility Plan, which fixed the Argentine peso's peg to the dollar, but in an election year, was postponed by the then President Carlos Menem. Already
Tequila effect after the financial markets began to close for Argentina, which after 1995 was mainly with funding from multilateral agencies to finance the deficit. During the 90 new bonds were placed when the previous expired.
By taking a new administration in December 1999 was a time of constant criticism of the Alliance for Work, Justice and Education that led to the Radical Civic Union Party for President Fernando de la Rua and Vice President Carlos Alvarez of FREPASO. Neither was considered suitable for the time of devaluation, given the economic recession that was lived and the constant mobilization of the citizenry that led to know the internal conflict.
In the second half of 2000, with the resignation of Vice President Carlos Alvarez was crystallized an internal political crisis which led to a perception of institutional weakness as the CR exceeded the 1500 having difficulties in accessing markets voluntary debt that would go down until finally a crisis in late 2001. The reason for the resignation, among other reasons, it referred a disagreement between them on the adoption of a flexible labor law that required the IMF to continue financing to Argentina, as part of a package of reforms it had undertaken to do country.
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "there was a structural reform agenda for 1998-2000 which included reforms in the labor market, taxation, budget procedures, and the conclusion of the privatization process, reforms in the health system the courts ", which was pending and even sprinkled corruption as regards the payment of bribes in Congress by the executive branch to pass legislation according to this plan work. Corruption case at the time also favored the political and institutional crisis in the country. While José Luis Machinea
as Minister of Economy of President Fernando de la Rua just before they closed the voluntary credit for Argentina in 2001, it received a loan of $ 20 million from international agencies and the Government of Spain necessary to cover the shortfall caused by lack of growth of the economy, the crisis
domestic policy had to be a crisis as severe as that experienced in 2001-2002 so that it would lead to the end of fixed exchange rate parity with the dollar was one of the measures expected from the devaluation of Brazil and the collapse of the real plan in January 1999. So Argentina paid a price for holding the exchange rate policy until January 2002, three years later.
"Argentina's crisis of 2000-02 was one of the most serious crises of recent times" according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recognizes that "separate the real's devaluation in early 1999, staff IMF began to consider more seriously the viability of the peg and possible exit strategies. " Despite these initiatives and financial support from the IMF, could not restore access to markets, and spreads on Argentine bonds (so-called "country risk") increased sharply in the third quarter of 2001 was reached to overcome 6000 points of country risk, Argentina lost all access to credit markets. That December
where Domingo Cavallo (architect of the Convertibility Plan) as Minister of Finance declared the yard for no runs on banks, announced what was coming. With the resignation of Fernando de la Rua, the CR was fired, more in the last week of December 2001 and the beginning of 2002 where there was a succession of four presidents. The third one was Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, who declared a moratorium or default of $ 90,000 million. And with Eduardo Duhalde as president in January 2002 sent a public letter to creditors that defined the situation as a deferral of payments and no unilateral suspension. Eduardo Duhalde
represented the transition in 2002, standardization of the market until 2003 after the election takes Nestor Kirchner. The latter would have moments of glory, as the improving economy, the renegotiation of debt in 2005, where There was a marked improvement in country risk index and then political moments that would lead to negative fluctuations, although not as pronounced as the Government has marked the history of Fernando De la Rua.
To facilitate the analysis, and considering the great influence it has had Néstor Kirchner in making decisions for his wife Cristina consider a whole era of the Kirchner government (2003-2007 and Néstor Kirchner Cristina Fernández de Kirchner 2003 - 2011) that, as indicated above has had reason to increase and decrease the country risk.
Among the political events that have reduced the country risk has been the restructuring debt in 2005, negotiations led by Roberto Lavagna, Minister of Economy of Nestor Kirchner. Among the positive consequences, it noted that "investments by large firms begin to recover from 2005," according an IMF report. "The country risk is normalized in June 2005, when Argentina partially completed a huge debt restructuring in default" and after several negative events to be described later starred by the Kirchner government, turned to maintain the same 2005 level in November of 2010, when after the death of Nestor Kirchner is confirmed the resumption of debt negotiations with the Paris Club.
Then political events during these two governments leading to increasing PR are not few. To expropriation or nationalization, denial of license or renewal of concessions without clear motives in the case of Aerolineas Argentinas, Aguas Argentinas, the pension system, more threats to do so to Fibertel, newsprint, and Telecom to name a few.
The incidence of Justice in the Economy is exemplified by the legal risk, or malfunction of the judicial system to ensure individual rights, property rights generates negative perceptions by investors acting directly on the PR. In the Argentina, which is the same executive branch that violates the Constitution when the President signed a decree dismissing the Chairman of the Central Bank, an autonomous institution. For other examples, questioning the ruling of the Supreme Court for suspension of one of the main articles of the Media Law that has driven the ruling and that limited press freedom. On the other hand, the Supreme Court ruling against the monopoly of the CGT, General Confederation of Workers (who presides is Hugo Moyano, a great ally of the Government) and the Ministry of Labor's Office refused to recognize union staff to implement the Central de Trabajadores Argentinos CTA.
On issues of internal conflict, the mobilization of organized agriculture, with strikes and roadblocks are another example of these negative political events. The conflict with the agricultural sector in the first half of 2008 caused a drop in bonds and increased country risk. The Vice-President Julio Cobos voted against the Government's project, creating a chasm in the relationship between the President and Vice President, contemplating a major internal political crisis. If the vice president did not resign at that time, 6 months after taking office, one might infer was the refusal to repeat the story of the resignation of Carlos Alvarez in 2000, just eleven months after taking.
This conflict of the Argentine countryside, has caused a drop in the terms of trade has increased the risk, as is a more adverse market with slower growth, so he spent a EMBI of Argentina in December 2007 when he assumes EMBI Cristina Kirchner to 1849 in November next year. We should not lose sight of the international market, which in 2007 U.S. mortgage crisis began shooting in 2008 the international crisis. Anyway, compared to the sensitivity of the Latin American market to the international crisis at the same time we see that the case of Argentina than the Latin American average.
corruption cases in folder officials as Ricardo Jaime, former Transportation Secretary Nestor Kirchner, and Guillermo Moreno, Secretary of Internal Trade of the two Governments, which has led diplomatic conflict with Spain, for example, parallel embassies in that country and in countries like Venezuela , is the officer who protects and aggressor government representative on the Board. In the case of the suitcase from Venezuela to finance the campaign of Cristina in 2007. The Skanska case in 2005, was one of the major cases has raised the corruption index by Transparency International in Argentina where the post is positioned at 105, 178, behind Senegal. The index was stable in 2003, 2004 with 2.5 to start growing to 2.8 in 2005 and closed again at 2.9 in 2010 as in 2009 and 2008.
Among the issues affecting the country's political institutions is the manipulation of statistics published by the INDEC, where there was wave of layoffs to employees of the institute who rejected the changes in measurement techniques favoring the government redound in rates lower than actual inflation may in a few months doubled or tripled. This irregular plight remains from three years ago have an expiration date. As requested by the Paris Club to reschedule the debt, the IMF should be involved in standardization advance rates. In November last it was confirmed that the IMF will provide technical assistance to stabilize the price index for what is already beginning to take steps for an internal reorganization.
The draft 2011 budget bill that Congress failed to agree the ruling to the opposition, the item includes the use of central bank reserves to pay debt, which was what triggered the conflict with Martin Redrado, President of autonomous body in order to be independent of the influence of political power and ensure the country's monetary policy.
In November, Reuters, reports that "Argentina's country risk measured by the yield differential between domestic bonds and U.S. benchmark fell Thursday to their lowest in 32 months, but despite this decline analysts expected a quick return to the South American country's debt markets. "
"The strength of the local market debt at attractive yields and gains in global markets following the announcement of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary relief from a new, guaranteed the improvement of the benchmark indicator of risk, leading to 506 basis points to the 2007 GMT. The intraday low EMBI + index 11EMJ bank JP Morgan to Argentina was 490 units. "
Several international media to report the death time former President Nestor Kirchner, also indicated the low country risk index in Argentina, the change in the country's political map. Given its influence on his wife Cristina Fernandez, current President of the country and dominated by an authoritarian style, low and aggressive and confrontational dialogue. The day of death "at 1342 GMT Argentina's portion of the EMBI + showed a sharp decline of 70 basis points to 511 units, accelerating the decline from a low of 54 basis points recorded earlier. The fall of Argentina's EMBI + performance contrasted with the EMBI + for all emerging market countries, which went only 7 basis points. The bond debt and Argentine stocks jumped on Wednesday on Wall Street. " "The sovereign bonds traded in the U.S. averaged an increase of 4% and so-called ADRs of bank shares climbed about 13%, according to market data."
On the other hand, dialogue with the Paris Club is also favorable. According to a Central Bank report "in recent months, in a more favorable international context and following the renegotiation of the reopening of the exchange of government debt, the external sector expansion has been higher than anticipated in the Monetary and it is expected that the remainder of 2010 continue to exceed the original estimates. "
Argentina after almost 8 years of default, is now in the final process of closing that chapter black economic history of Argentina, and has been recognized that regulate more than 91% of the original debt eligible.
Back in September 2010 has been an improvement of the country to go to category B. The ratings are placed on a scale of 7 levels A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C, D, when in 2001 it was D, representing an economic and political environment of the country presents a very high risk, will exacerbate the behaviors payment, generally deplorable. The currently found in category B, which implies an uncertain economic and political environment is likely to affect a payment behavior, often mediocre, is a great achievement by the Government of the Kirchner despite negative events of his administration that we have mentioned.
Conclusions:
In the case of Argentina illustrates the sensitivity of country risk index to political developments that reflect the institutional weakness of the democratic system and the independence of the three powers and can undermine the rule of law. Are the variables of political risks weigh heavily on in relation to the two other risks that make the country risk, namely the Economic and Financial Risk.
The Governments of Argentina has demonstrated the events along its history and in our study particularly in the last ten years that the high incidence and often irrational in the country's economic policy, intervening in the economy than recommended by the theories of the market economy of the liberal or Social Market Economy of ordoliberales, has been highly disruptive, often negating the advantages to be had on the economic aspects, such as annual income, economic growth, income per capita. Was clear when he beat Nigeria Country Risk in 2001 that has a much lower per capita income ($ 970 vs 12,900).
Yes, it has become alarmingly between components Financial Risk that external debt that year reached 50% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Today we can see how he could recover economically, establishing an appropriate exchange rate policy to competitiveness in regional and international trade making the economy grow at reasonable rates. On the other hand, external debt, beyond the institutional remnants that means the creation of the Bicentennial or international law at the implications that has had the debt restructuring, has managed to have a positive outcome of the negotiations for the country.
However, the bad news is that while there is an index of corruption, including Transparency International said that shows the increase and the lack of political stability and violations of democratic system, with quality ranging bureaucratic expense (increase patronage of public contracts for the Government of the Kirchner), the Political risk is more important component of Argentina's country risk, it will be clear with your elbow as you write by hand, for the efforts made on economic and financial outweighed by the decline in political risk. Argentina
The topic given for writing several books and stop at each one of these components of political risk, where the country deliberately and widely seems to exemplify each of these. But just to conclude, we can say that changes in the country's political behavior is a cultural issue that must be improved and that each fall is a lesson that the people concerned must learn to change their future and this is better, both in economically and politically, because the two concepts go together and are interdependent.
Bibliography:
- Howell, Llewellyn ed. (1998) The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis 2nd. Ed The PRS Group: New York. Selections.
- Howell (2006) "Political Risk Assessment in a Globalized Context" 47th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
- Wolf (2002) "Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility" Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 579: 38-52
- Waibel (2007) "Opening Pandora's Box: Sovereign Bonds in International Arbitration" The American Journal of International Law 101(Issue): 711-759
- Quan, Li (2006) "Democracy, Autocracy, and Tax Incentives to Foreign Direct Investors: A Cross-National Analysis" Journal of Politics 68(1): 62-74.
- Leblang (1999) "Domestic Political Institutions and Exchange Rate Commitments in the Developing World" International Studies Quarterly 43: 599-620
- Brewer, Thomas (1993) “Government Policies, Market Imperfections, and Foreign Direct Investment” Journal of International Business Studies, 24(1): 101-120.
- Bernhard, William and David Leblang (2002) “Democratic Processes, Political Risk, and Foreign Exchange Markets” American Journal of Political Science 46(2): 316-333.
- Bernhard and Leblang (2002) "Political Parties and Monetary Commitments" International Organization 56(4): 803-830.
- Feng, Yi (2001) “Political Freedom, Political Instability, and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries” International Studies Quarterly 45(2): 271-294.
- Gaba, Ernesto “Impacto de la crisis internacional en Argentina, Facultad de Ciencias Economic. University of Buenos Aires
- Lu, Kevin W., et. al. eds. (2009) "Investing with Confidence: Understanding Political Risk Management in the 21st Century." The World Bank: Washington, DC
Clarín Newspaper articles: www.clarin.com,
www.lanacion.com.ar Nation
The Chronicle www.cronista.com
CNN www.cnn.com www.reuters.com Reuters Pages
institutional and official documents: World Bank: http://www.bancomundial.org/
- WB Report "Insolvency Systems and Credit Rights." Argentina (2002).
- World Bank Institute Country Data Report for ARGENTINA, 1996-2009 "
Fund IMF: http://www.imf.org
- IMF 2004 "Report on the Evaluation of the Role of the IMF in Argentina, 1991-2001"
- IMF WP/10/3 "Investment by Large Firms in Argentina" Alvaro Piris
Central Bank of Argentina: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/
- Update Monetary Program goals second half of 2010.
- Law
BCRA's National Institute of Statistics and Census. http://www.indec.gov.ar/
Ministry of Economy of Argentina http://www.mecon.gov.ar/
- Press Release. Standard & Poor's sovereign ratings up Argentina to 'B'. September 13 2010. 
country risk in Argentina is a concept that became popular after the 2001-2002 crisis, and from that time used to explain everything bad economic disaster that occurred in that country, low investment, falling market Internationally, the rising prices of imported goods, unemployment, lack of credit, everything was the fault of Country Risk. While it was all part of the phenomenon of crisis is necessary to individualize each event and analyze each of the variables that influence country risk indices.
The aim of this paper is to conceptualize the Country Risk (Country Risk, CR) and Political Risk (Political Risk, PR), identify that it is not an isolated phenomenon, but in a globalized world country risk in country A can affect to country B, resulting in regional contagion effects of interdependent economies. It shall, moreover, some dependent variables of the concept of country risk, such as monetary policy, sovereign debt and the weakness of democratic institutions.
will be of interest to note some political and economic events have served as milestones of ascent and descent of the IRP to monitor developments in the last decade, from the party change in the Presidency of the Nation December 10, 1999 when he took the radical Fernando De la Rúa after two periods of Peronist government of Carlos Menem, to the October 27 date of death of former President Nestor Kirchner. On both dates is perceived changes for Argentina negatively influenced positively in the IRP and have locked the key facts as the 2002 declaration of default and debt renegotiation in 2005.
In relation to the sources available to this modest work, conceptual development of the subject matter will be taken from academic sources and country risk specialists to the analysis of political events will be considered journalistic sources, and international perceptions about these facts, are considered sources of international organizations. Conceptual Approach
In this first part will be a conceptual analysis of country risk variables from the case of Argentina.
Guide International Country Risk (ICRG, for short), takes 22 components and each of them gives a maximum score to determine which sequence analysis classified the country. To do this, ordered the 22 components in three categories, Political Risk (50%), Financial Risk (25%) and Economic Risk (25%). Thus, we see that the components of political risk have twice the weight that the following two. Therefore, in the second part of this work will give more importance to them. To find out, mention them because each of them speaks for itself: government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, Conflicto externo, corrupción, Militares en Política, religión en Política, Leyeres y orden, Tensiones étnicas, Fortaleza Democrática, Calidad burocrática.
En definitiva, para diferenciar el Riesgo País del riesgo Político, se puede observar a simple vista que el Riesgo Político es simplemente la mitad del Riesgo País, por lo que no puede ser utilizado como sinónimo cómo comúnmente suele suceder.
El término Riesgo Político se refiere a las posibilidades de que las decisiones políticas o eventos sociales en un país puedan afectar al clima de negocios en el cual se encamina la pérdida de dinero por parte de los inversores o no ganan tanto como esperaban cuando hicieron investment (Howell, 2006). External debt
access to capital markets in the XX and XXI centuries has generated new questions about the litigation against sovereignty. In the sovereign debt market, countries act almost as private debtors. Argentina defaulted on U.S. $ 100 billion U.S. is the largest private debt in history. In February 2005 the Argentine Congress passed Law 26017 which prohibited the reopening of trade with non-participating bondholders not, only 76% of bondholders accepted the exchange of bonds for the 25-29% of its value, which was the result of negotiations led by Roberto Lavagna, Minister of Economy of Nestor Kirchner. In September 2006, 170,000 Italian bondholders initiated ICSID arbitration, (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, established by the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes Between States and Nationals of Other States connected to the World Bank) requiring 5.5 billion Argentina dollars in compensation. It is important to clarify that Argentina is a country that is signatory to the treaty but not ratified, at least not until 2009, according to World Bank report. Therefore, it warns Waibel (2007), to consider the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT), recipient countries can not expropriate capital, and the declaration of cessation of payments may be considered an expropriation of the value assigned to sovereign bonds. The origin of the bondholders are principally U.S., Germany and Italy, where he continues the dispute. Argentina has different terms in their BIT obligations under each of these countries (Germany, Italy and USA) and then the complexity of the arbitration.
Argentina has signed and ratified the Convention Establishing the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA for its acronym in English) but does not offer guarantees that provide ICSID. With regard to disputes relating to the debt faced Argentina in early 2009 and 46 cases are pending and 18 international, plus others that have been dismissed for reasons of jurisdiction, discontinued or suspended, according to Joseph Profaizer in a publication for the World Bank. This author questions whether Argentina will not set a precedent to change the paradigm of the execution of arbitral awards, based on international law, the other side of the default.
Perhaps we should remember that government bonds are debt instruments of a country that promises to pay principal and interest over a specified period of time on payment of a value determined in advance. Usually it is an instrument used to finance, since no default Argentina from international credit has not issued bonds. Although, with the promising negotiations with the Paris Club, some economists predict that soon the country will be able to re-issue.
Now, we must take into account the default on sovereign bonds of Argentina stated that in 2001 or the change in sovereign actions relating to a them during the debt restructuring can be potentially considered direct or indirect expropriation (Waibel , 2007). As not only the actions of 2001, but also its restructuring in 2005 that violated contractual rights of creditors may be considered with this term so strong that it triggers the CR rate: Expropriation
The Argentine peso
With the Convertibility Plan that gave the peg the Argentine peso against the U.S. dollar and choose a fixed exchange rate, it seemed a good plan when to stop hyperinflation. However, the credibility of Argentina's currency was far from being the same as the U.S. dollar, especially in the last five years when the economy began to crumble. The arguments to bind to a foreign currency is the guarantee of a discipline in monetary policy and eliminate currency risk. But it was not the case of Argentina, where bank regulation of trade, and currency risk and inflation could become a credit risk (Wolf, 2002). The financial crisis in emerging markets in 1997-1998, the Brazilian devaluation of 1999 should have resulted in a contagion effect and also devalued the currency in Argentina. However, do not faced a problem of competitiveness, especially in labor costs and there was deflation and Argentine prices fell by 3% (Wolf, 2002).
The risk increased when the Government takes more credits without the credibility or political or economic program supported him. Argentina had resisted even longer without those credits, the adjustment proposed by Ricardo Lopez Murphy (Minister of Economy, which went down in history to stay in office for just 15 days) was not so great, it would be a good choice but could not resist the political pressure (Wolf, 2002). Argentina ran out and his first option was the default second and third devaluation.
After spending sharply for the second option, and specify the third, has adopted a floating exchange rate, but in a pattern of "dirty float" it depends on the level of reserves. By adopting this scheme, Martin Redrado, was so concerned about the use of reserves to pay debt in December 2009 when the executive proposed the Bicentennial Fund, which provided the reserves, provision should only provide take the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). According to the Organic Law of Central Bank, the obligation is to maintain a constant exchange rate of the peso in relation to its exchange value in relation to the goods and services no longer in relation to other currencies.
This political intervention in exchange rate policy could undermine the stability of the country's exchange rate, which is more than a pattern of dirty floating exchange rate, economic growth has benefited the country, keeping it competitive with its neighbors and international trade in raw materials.
analysis of political events affected the political risk and country risk developments Argentina
In this second part is an analysis of the concepts seen above that affect the risk of investing in Argentina, recalling the economic and political events in this country of the last ten years they did fluctuate country risk index.
The perception of Argentine citizens is that the economy began to crumble after the Tequila effect in 1995 and worsened after the devaluation in Brazil in 1999. They had started the rumors in 1997 about a possible devaluation of Brazil, affecting directly in the stock market falling sharply. Country risk Argentine exceed 500 basis points in 1998, the Russian default and devaluation in Brazil in 1999. At this point there is a cessation of capital inflows and foreign investment. It was expected the end of the Convertibility Plan, which fixed the Argentine peso's peg to the dollar, but in an election year, was postponed by the then President Carlos Menem. Already
Tequila effect after the financial markets began to close for Argentina, which after 1995 was mainly with funding from multilateral agencies to finance the deficit. During the 90 new bonds were placed when the previous expired.
By taking a new administration in December 1999 was a time of constant criticism of the Alliance for Work, Justice and Education that led to the Radical Civic Union Party for President Fernando de la Rua and Vice President Carlos Alvarez of FREPASO. Neither was considered suitable for the time of devaluation, given the economic recession that was lived and the constant mobilization of the citizenry that led to know the internal conflict.
In the second half of 2000, with the resignation of Vice President Carlos Alvarez was crystallized an internal political crisis which led to a perception of institutional weakness as the CR exceeded the 1500 having difficulties in accessing markets voluntary debt that would go down until finally a crisis in late 2001. The reason for the resignation, among other reasons, it referred a disagreement between them on the adoption of a flexible labor law that required the IMF to continue financing to Argentina, as part of a package of reforms it had undertaken to do country.
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "there was a structural reform agenda for 1998-2000 which included reforms in the labor market, taxation, budget procedures, and the conclusion of the privatization process, reforms in the health system the courts ", which was pending and even sprinkled corruption as regards the payment of bribes in Congress by the executive branch to pass legislation according to this plan work. Corruption case at the time also favored the political and institutional crisis in the country. While José Luis Machinea
as Minister of Economy of President Fernando de la Rua just before they closed the voluntary credit for Argentina in 2001, it received a loan of $ 20 million from international agencies and the Government of Spain necessary to cover the shortfall caused by lack of growth of the economy, the crisis
domestic policy had to be a crisis as severe as that experienced in 2001-2002 so that it would lead to the end of fixed exchange rate parity with the dollar was one of the measures expected from the devaluation of Brazil and the collapse of the real plan in January 1999. So Argentina paid a price for holding the exchange rate policy until January 2002, three years later.
"Argentina's crisis of 2000-02 was one of the most serious crises of recent times" according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recognizes that "separate the real's devaluation in early 1999, staff IMF began to consider more seriously the viability of the peg and possible exit strategies. " Despite these initiatives and financial support from the IMF, could not restore access to markets, and spreads on Argentine bonds (so-called "country risk") increased sharply in the third quarter of 2001 was reached to overcome 6000 points of country risk, Argentina lost all access to credit markets. That December
where Domingo Cavallo (architect of the Convertibility Plan) as Minister of Finance declared the yard for no runs on banks, announced what was coming. With the resignation of Fernando de la Rua, the CR was fired, more in the last week of December 2001 and the beginning of 2002 where there was a succession of four presidents. The third one was Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, who declared a moratorium or default of $ 90,000 million. And with Eduardo Duhalde as president in January 2002 sent a public letter to creditors that defined the situation as a deferral of payments and no unilateral suspension. Eduardo Duhalde
represented the transition in 2002, standardization of the market until 2003 after the election takes Nestor Kirchner. The latter would have moments of glory, as the improving economy, the renegotiation of debt in 2005, where There was a marked improvement in country risk index and then political moments that would lead to negative fluctuations, although not as pronounced as the Government has marked the history of Fernando De la Rua.
To facilitate the analysis, and considering the great influence it has had Néstor Kirchner in making decisions for his wife Cristina consider a whole era of the Kirchner government (2003-2007 and Néstor Kirchner Cristina Fernández de Kirchner 2003 - 2011) that, as indicated above has had reason to increase and decrease the country risk.
Among the political events that have reduced the country risk has been the restructuring debt in 2005, negotiations led by Roberto Lavagna, Minister of Economy of Nestor Kirchner. Among the positive consequences, it noted that "investments by large firms begin to recover from 2005," according an IMF report. "The country risk is normalized in June 2005, when Argentina partially completed a huge debt restructuring in default" and after several negative events to be described later starred by the Kirchner government, turned to maintain the same 2005 level in November of 2010, when after the death of Nestor Kirchner is confirmed the resumption of debt negotiations with the Paris Club.
Then political events during these two governments leading to increasing PR are not few. To expropriation or nationalization, denial of license or renewal of concessions without clear motives in the case of Aerolineas Argentinas, Aguas Argentinas, the pension system, more threats to do so to Fibertel, newsprint, and Telecom to name a few.
The incidence of Justice in the Economy is exemplified by the legal risk, or malfunction of the judicial system to ensure individual rights, property rights generates negative perceptions by investors acting directly on the PR. In the Argentina, which is the same executive branch that violates the Constitution when the President signed a decree dismissing the Chairman of the Central Bank, an autonomous institution. For other examples, questioning the ruling of the Supreme Court for suspension of one of the main articles of the Media Law that has driven the ruling and that limited press freedom. On the other hand, the Supreme Court ruling against the monopoly of the CGT, General Confederation of Workers (who presides is Hugo Moyano, a great ally of the Government) and the Ministry of Labor's Office refused to recognize union staff to implement the Central de Trabajadores Argentinos CTA.
On issues of internal conflict, the mobilization of organized agriculture, with strikes and roadblocks are another example of these negative political events. The conflict with the agricultural sector in the first half of 2008 caused a drop in bonds and increased country risk. The Vice-President Julio Cobos voted against the Government's project, creating a chasm in the relationship between the President and Vice President, contemplating a major internal political crisis. If the vice president did not resign at that time, 6 months after taking office, one might infer was the refusal to repeat the story of the resignation of Carlos Alvarez in 2000, just eleven months after taking.
This conflict of the Argentine countryside, has caused a drop in the terms of trade has increased the risk, as is a more adverse market with slower growth, so he spent a EMBI of Argentina in December 2007 when he assumes EMBI Cristina Kirchner to 1849 in November next year. We should not lose sight of the international market, which in 2007 U.S. mortgage crisis began shooting in 2008 the international crisis. Anyway, compared to the sensitivity of the Latin American market to the international crisis at the same time we see that the case of Argentina than the Latin American average.
corruption cases in folder officials as Ricardo Jaime, former Transportation Secretary Nestor Kirchner, and Guillermo Moreno, Secretary of Internal Trade of the two Governments, which has led diplomatic conflict with Spain, for example, parallel embassies in that country and in countries like Venezuela , is the officer who protects and aggressor government representative on the Board. In the case of the suitcase from Venezuela to finance the campaign of Cristina in 2007. The Skanska case in 2005, was one of the major cases has raised the corruption index by Transparency International in Argentina where the post is positioned at 105, 178, behind Senegal. The index was stable in 2003, 2004 with 2.5 to start growing to 2.8 in 2005 and closed again at 2.9 in 2010 as in 2009 and 2008.
Among the issues affecting the country's political institutions is the manipulation of statistics published by the INDEC, where there was wave of layoffs to employees of the institute who rejected the changes in measurement techniques favoring the government redound in rates lower than actual inflation may in a few months doubled or tripled. This irregular plight remains from three years ago have an expiration date. As requested by the Paris Club to reschedule the debt, the IMF should be involved in standardization advance rates. In November last it was confirmed that the IMF will provide technical assistance to stabilize the price index for what is already beginning to take steps for an internal reorganization.
The draft 2011 budget bill that Congress failed to agree the ruling to the opposition, the item includes the use of central bank reserves to pay debt, which was what triggered the conflict with Martin Redrado, President of autonomous body in order to be independent of the influence of political power and ensure the country's monetary policy.
In November, Reuters, reports that "Argentina's country risk measured by the yield differential between domestic bonds and U.S. benchmark fell Thursday to their lowest in 32 months, but despite this decline analysts expected a quick return to the South American country's debt markets. "
"The strength of the local market debt at attractive yields and gains in global markets following the announcement of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary relief from a new, guaranteed the improvement of the benchmark indicator of risk, leading to 506 basis points to the 2007 GMT. The intraday low EMBI + index 11EMJ bank JP Morgan to Argentina was 490 units. "
Several international media to report the death time former President Nestor Kirchner, also indicated the low country risk index in Argentina, the change in the country's political map. Given its influence on his wife Cristina Fernandez, current President of the country and dominated by an authoritarian style, low and aggressive and confrontational dialogue. The day of death "at 1342 GMT Argentina's portion of the EMBI + showed a sharp decline of 70 basis points to 511 units, accelerating the decline from a low of 54 basis points recorded earlier. The fall of Argentina's EMBI + performance contrasted with the EMBI + for all emerging market countries, which went only 7 basis points. The bond debt and Argentine stocks jumped on Wednesday on Wall Street. " "The sovereign bonds traded in the U.S. averaged an increase of 4% and so-called ADRs of bank shares climbed about 13%, according to market data."
On the other hand, dialogue with the Paris Club is also favorable. According to a Central Bank report "in recent months, in a more favorable international context and following the renegotiation of the reopening of the exchange of government debt, the external sector expansion has been higher than anticipated in the Monetary and it is expected that the remainder of 2010 continue to exceed the original estimates. "
Argentina after almost 8 years of default, is now in the final process of closing that chapter black economic history of Argentina, and has been recognized that regulate more than 91% of the original debt eligible.
Back in September 2010 has been an improvement of the country to go to category B. The ratings are placed on a scale of 7 levels A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C, D, when in 2001 it was D, representing an economic and political environment of the country presents a very high risk, will exacerbate the behaviors payment, generally deplorable. The currently found in category B, which implies an uncertain economic and political environment is likely to affect a payment behavior, often mediocre, is a great achievement by the Government of the Kirchner despite negative events of his administration that we have mentioned.
Conclusions:
In the case of Argentina illustrates the sensitivity of country risk index to political developments that reflect the institutional weakness of the democratic system and the independence of the three powers and can undermine the rule of law. Are the variables of political risks weigh heavily on in relation to the two other risks that make the country risk, namely the Economic and Financial Risk.
The Governments of Argentina has demonstrated the events along its history and in our study particularly in the last ten years that the high incidence and often irrational in the country's economic policy, intervening in the economy than recommended by the theories of the market economy of the liberal or Social Market Economy of ordoliberales, has been highly disruptive, often negating the advantages to be had on the economic aspects, such as annual income, economic growth, income per capita. Was clear when he beat Nigeria Country Risk in 2001 that has a much lower per capita income ($ 970 vs 12,900).
Yes, it has become alarmingly between components Financial Risk that external debt that year reached 50% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
Today we can see how he could recover economically, establishing an appropriate exchange rate policy to competitiveness in regional and international trade making the economy grow at reasonable rates. On the other hand, external debt, beyond the institutional remnants that means the creation of the Bicentennial or international law at the implications that has had the debt restructuring, has managed to have a positive outcome of the negotiations for the country.
However, the bad news is that while there is an index of corruption, including Transparency International said that shows the increase and the lack of political stability and violations of democratic system, with quality ranging bureaucratic expense (increase patronage of public contracts for the Government of the Kirchner), the Political risk is more important component of Argentina's country risk, it will be clear with your elbow as you write by hand, for the efforts made on economic and financial outweighed by the decline in political risk. Argentina
The topic given for writing several books and stop at each one of these components of political risk, where the country deliberately and widely seems to exemplify each of these. But just to conclude, we can say that changes in the country's political behavior is a cultural issue that must be improved and that each fall is a lesson that the people concerned must learn to change their future and this is better, both in economically and politically, because the two concepts go together and are interdependent.
Bibliography:
- Howell, Llewellyn ed. (1998) The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis 2nd. Ed The PRS Group: New York. Selections.
- Howell (2006) "Political Risk Assessment in a Globalized Context" 47th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association.
- Wolf (2002) "Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility" Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 579: 38-52
- Waibel (2007) "Opening Pandora's Box: Sovereign Bonds in International Arbitration" The American Journal of International Law 101(Issue): 711-759
- Quan, Li (2006) "Democracy, Autocracy, and Tax Incentives to Foreign Direct Investors: A Cross-National Analysis" Journal of Politics 68(1): 62-74.
- Leblang (1999) "Domestic Political Institutions and Exchange Rate Commitments in the Developing World" International Studies Quarterly 43: 599-620
- Brewer, Thomas (1993) “Government Policies, Market Imperfections, and Foreign Direct Investment” Journal of International Business Studies, 24(1): 101-120.
- Bernhard, William and David Leblang (2002) “Democratic Processes, Political Risk, and Foreign Exchange Markets” American Journal of Political Science 46(2): 316-333.
- Bernhard and Leblang (2002) "Political Parties and Monetary Commitments" International Organization 56(4): 803-830.
- Feng, Yi (2001) “Political Freedom, Political Instability, and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries” International Studies Quarterly 45(2): 271-294.
- Gaba, Ernesto “Impacto de la crisis internacional en Argentina, Facultad de Ciencias Economic. University of Buenos Aires
- Lu, Kevin W., et. al. eds. (2009) "Investing with Confidence: Understanding Political Risk Management in the 21st Century." The World Bank: Washington, DC
Clarín Newspaper articles: www.clarin.com,
www.lanacion.com.ar Nation
The Chronicle www.cronista.com
CNN www.cnn.com www.reuters.com Reuters Pages
institutional and official documents: World Bank: http://www.bancomundial.org/
- WB Report "Insolvency Systems and Credit Rights." Argentina (2002).
- World Bank Institute Country Data Report for ARGENTINA, 1996-2009 "
Fund IMF: http://www.imf.org
- IMF 2004 "Report on the Evaluation of the Role of the IMF in Argentina, 1991-2001"
- IMF WP/10/3 "Investment by Large Firms in Argentina" Alvaro Piris
Central Bank of Argentina: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/
- Update Monetary Program goals second half of 2010.
- Law
BCRA's National Institute of Statistics and Census. http://www.indec.gov.ar/
Ministry of Economy of Argentina http://www.mecon.gov.ar/
- Press Release. Standard & Poor's sovereign ratings up Argentina to 'B'. September 13 2010.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Scab Red Ring On Genitals
real and unreal
In the past few weeks I worked with photographer Pablo Baudet the presentation of the Art Institute of Fashion and Design in La Noche en Blanco de Tenerife (November 28, 2010) .
The Art Institute of Fashion and Design is a new center to be "born with the objective of meeting the training needs in the world of visual arts, design and fashion ... aimed at those looking to start , who want to specialize or supplement their knowledge and stay current in these areas for the development of their profession or to grow personally and culturally. "
As part of the intervention, Paul held a photocall at street level that could be photographed with the Tenerife fashion accessories, among whom were some of my origami headgear . Before we shot with the same designs and some more to the model Carla for a fashion editorial.
And here are the pictures of all these wonderful women, who dared to be played on paper.
A friend mine commented that my hat reminds hats Amélie Nothomb, "carried the hats better than anyone." I had not happened to it, but it really is.
can see the rest of portraits here and follow the group on Facebook .
© Pablo Baudet & Origlam
© Pablo Baudet & Origlam
© Pablo Baudet & Origlam
In the past few weeks I worked with photographer Pablo Baudet the presentation of the Art Institute of Fashion and Design in La Noche en Blanco de Tenerife (November 28, 2010) .
The Art Institute of Fashion and Design is a new center to be "born with the objective of meeting the training needs in the world of visual arts, design and fashion ... aimed at those looking to start , who want to specialize or supplement their knowledge and stay current in these areas for the development of their profession or to grow personally and culturally. "
As part of the intervention, Paul held a photocall at street level that could be photographed with the Tenerife fashion accessories, among whom were some of my origami headgear . Before we shot with the same designs and some more to the model Carla for a fashion editorial.
And here are the pictures of all these wonderful women, who dared to be played on paper.
A friend mine commented that my hat reminds hats Amélie Nothomb, "carried the hats better than anyone." I had not happened to it, but it really is.
can see the rest of portraits here and follow the group on Facebook .
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Marketsphere Unclaimed Property Letter Fraud
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Biffy Clyro - Mountains Tabs Piano
Very close to the snow and open windows to the country this month will my wrists. of November 25, 2010 to January 12, 2011 you can find in the delightful tea room in Rascafría Toni.
dolls look very different close to nature, more in your environment. Suddenly make sense of all these prints of flowers and plants, gardens and atmospheric phenomena, feelings linked to the seasons. From the day I left, I am thinking Nature is the best art gallery world. a heavy snow had fallen the night before the assembly and the sun was shining. How close was Japan.
A Rascafría rose many fold flat dolls (Shiori Ningyo ) submitted air and in the Japanese tradition: on panels decorated with natural woods and fabrics and Japanese papers. Also some anesama ningyo , carp (Koi ) and mobile to celebrate the Year of the Rabbit. All unique pieces made in quality handmade Japanese papers.
talks of the importance of supporting the artisans with our purchases to keep alive the craft, equipment, materials, knowledge and traditional flavors. This time they also support me, and we support each other. In the exhibition space, plus my Japanese dolls, you can enjoy baked goods and organic breads made with the same passionate delivery and patient with me bow my origami.
Toni is an irresistible pastry (pears and chocolate cakes, muffins, soy and nuts ....) but also brings Miraflores Sinuhe breads Medina, a pioneer and strong in our country in making bread Yeast mother and the cleanest water. Sinuhe not only produces bread as a great teacher (sensei) , but rescue and invented recipes, such as porcini bread or breads with raisins and orange blossom.
We have prepared this exhibition also thinking Rascafría people. In bringing beauty to other people. Now we just need that you all who come near to see what we can give you.
Sweets Tea La Flaca
Every day from 10 to 2 and 5 to 8 (except Wednesdays)
dolls look very different close to nature, more in your environment. Suddenly make sense of all these prints of flowers and plants, gardens and atmospheric phenomena, feelings linked to the seasons. From the day I left, I am thinking Nature is the best art gallery world. a heavy snow had fallen the night before the assembly and the sun was shining. How close was Japan.
A Rascafría rose many fold flat dolls (Shiori Ningyo ) submitted air and in the Japanese tradition: on panels decorated with natural woods and fabrics and Japanese papers. Also some anesama ningyo , carp (Koi ) and mobile to celebrate the Year of the Rabbit. All unique pieces made in quality handmade Japanese papers.
talks of the importance of supporting the artisans with our purchases to keep alive the craft, equipment, materials, knowledge and traditional flavors. This time they also support me, and we support each other. In the exhibition space, plus my Japanese dolls, you can enjoy baked goods and organic breads made with the same passionate delivery and patient with me bow my origami.
Toni is an irresistible pastry (pears and chocolate cakes, muffins, soy and nuts ....) but also brings Miraflores Sinuhe breads Medina, a pioneer and strong in our country in making bread Yeast mother and the cleanest water. Sinuhe not only produces bread as a great teacher (sensei) , but rescue and invented recipes, such as porcini bread or breads with raisins and orange blossom.
We have prepared this exhibition also thinking Rascafría people. In bringing beauty to other people. Now we just need that you all who come near to see what we can give you.
Sweets Tea La Flaca
Every day from 10 to 2 and 5 to 8 (except Wednesdays)
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Monday, November 29, 2010
What Is The Best Jesse Jane Film?
Peonies in the snow
On this evening of snow in Madrid, my María Eugenia friend reminded me this quote from Kawabata
courtesy (the plant), size goodness (the man who accompanies her on grow ), size and delicate cruelty (that of a full-fledged flower form or color in winter).
Madrid flakes fall and are also in the direction of someone, supernaturally. The first snows of winter appear to signal a pause. Yo, I come from a place where there is rarely snow, I do not know how to interpret them, just me having fun. There
peonies in sight, but surely somewhere in bloom.
On this evening of snow in Madrid, my María Eugenia friend reminded me this quote from Kawabata
... The window outlined against uniformly gray sky, which fell, and white peonies, large flakes of snow that seemed to run toward them in a harmonious and peaceful silence that was something supernatural. Shimamura was left to be invaded by that image, blank and after a sleepless night ...And I've got to remember ... that the Japanese built small huts on the peony bushes that can flourish in the snow. Such a huge
Snow Country
courtesy (the plant), size goodness (the man who accompanies her on grow ), size and delicate cruelty (that of a full-fledged flower form or color in winter).
Madrid flakes fall and are also in the direction of someone, supernaturally. The first snows of winter appear to signal a pause. Yo, I come from a place where there is rarely snow, I do not know how to interpret them, just me having fun. There
peonies in sight, but surely somewhere in bloom.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Huge Icicles How To Remove
Starting this month in several courses impart Styleroom origami Christmas decorators designed for souls.
You can learn to make different models Trees, Stars and Snowflakes, Cards or wrappers. On Saturdays in April and 18 December and Friday 10 and 17 December.
can take these classes or make enrollment in our courses at your own r egal the coming Christmas holidays. Tuition and our gift cards styleroompopup@gmail.com.
You can learn to make different models Trees, Stars and Snowflakes, Cards or wrappers. On Saturdays in April and 18 December and Friday 10 and 17 December.
can take these classes or make enrollment in our courses at your own r egal the coming Christmas holidays. Tuition and our gift cards styleroompopup@gmail.com.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Saturday, November 20, 2010
My Husband Breastfeeds Always
More Gifts origami origami wedding
Dune For the wedding I turned this pair of paper figures, which make both the bride and groom on the banquet table. We saw tents for weeks that markers used table for guests.
A Duna, rather than the traditional Japanese dolls marriage partner, he wanted to have dolls that represented their ideal partner. Her husband wanted to appear as a samurai and she wanted to wear a red kimono.
she chose the pattern for the rain petals of cherry blossoms ( hanafubuki ) and added to enrich the figure, other kimonos inferiones bamboo, small flowers and cranes, on white or red gold. The gold obi is detailed with cherry blossoms, a obijime enamel and red silk cord.
© Origlam 2010
I wanted to complete the outfit him with a detailed Sea of \u200b\u200bJapan, expressing their strength. Carries a sword, a knot in her hair, arrows and flag. At the base of black silk moire repeated cross the main reasons for the couple (the sea and the cherry blossom), wee dress the same roles on the base itself. We use the richest roles: chirimen and momigamis for this project.
Dune For the wedding I turned this pair of paper figures, which make both the bride and groom on the banquet table. We saw tents for weeks that markers used table for guests.
A Duna, rather than the traditional Japanese dolls marriage partner, he wanted to have dolls that represented their ideal partner. Her husband wanted to appear as a samurai and she wanted to wear a red kimono.
she chose the pattern for the rain petals of cherry blossoms ( hanafubuki ) and added to enrich the figure, other kimonos inferiones bamboo, small flowers and cranes, on white or red gold. The gold obi is detailed with cherry blossoms, a obijime enamel and red silk cord.
© Origlam 2010
I wanted to complete the outfit him with a detailed Sea of \u200b\u200bJapan, expressing their strength. Carries a sword, a knot in her hair, arrows and flag. At the base of black silk moire repeated cross the main reasons for the couple (the sea and the cherry blossom), wee dress the same roles on the base itself. We use the richest roles: chirimen and momigamis for this project.
So here we have our boyfriends and has slowly been increasing its props with a samurai hat, knots and flowers in her hair, an umbrella for her fans, etc. But now, these two figures accompanying paper honeymooners in the room of your home. Figures can be moved and can orient their heads and their position and gestures toward each other.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Friday, November 19, 2010
Areopostale Uses Real Fur
Civil Society International Relations History
1. The classical school of realism in the international system denies any actor other than the State. Later, neo-realism recognizes that the State is the principal actor and that there are other actors that emerge in the second image of Kenneth Waltz, the home area, but not decisive for the third image that is international. These other international actors, these are the International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) are considered epiphenomena, mere reflections of the will of the state. However, neither realists nor neorealist reflect the true and actual role that state actors are in the international world.
society actors Civil perhaps were not considered in the classical literature of international relations as we know it today to INGOs, yet if they were taken into account in a broader concept that will lead to the emergence of INGOs in concept evolved. Examples are the partnership of I. Kant and the center of public life considered by Hegel and Marx. Also, when the liberals argue that one of the main objectives of the state is to protect the individual, which is necessary for peace, harmony and international cooperation, you are giving such importance to the individual who said that the state is seeking the interests of individuals, giving importance their political participation, freedom of the individual, economic and political. Will these individuals, who make up civil society, the sum of the action of each shape the common good as the liberal vision. Today, in the twenty-first century is an academic consensus that civil society goes beyond the domestic sphere to the international and has a prominent role in international politics. So says Mary Kaldor, "civil society is no longer confined to the borders of the territorial state" and "civil society is in the process of helping to form and be constituted by a system of rules." In this system of rules we will later from Grotian vision rescued by the English school to make an approach to the notion of global civil society. Furthermore, it indicated that Thomas Risse and in the seventies was focused studies of international relations in the private sector multinational corporations in the nineties have focused on the field of nonprofit organizations, transnational . Serbin agree with the non-state actors in the foreground are not only the transnational corporations and multinational companies, but a group of organizations and movements that make up a new international benchmark in ambiguous figure of a little-defined global civil society.
The point is to determine how much and in what situations or how they influence these actors.
As more and more multinational INGOs involved in international affairs, more influential have these actors, in a tendency for non-hierarchical relations, democratization and participation of all in perspective of governance. INGOs have power to influence world public opinion that is a factor in decisions of state governments and the international consensus.
Following the review of the theories of international relations about the role of non-state actors, we recall the statement Zacher and Matthew's in liberal theory argues that international relations are developing in greater freedom of human beings and that peace, justice and welfare, it is possible greatly to international cooperation. Cooperation that can influence the acceptance of moral standards, adherence to international law and cooperation through international organizations. International cooperation has included non-state actors in the projects and financing that was once exclusively for state actors. Economic cooperation is among the main topics of the international agenda and INGOs sit by States at international conferences through the empowerment they gained by this same cooperation. The authors referred to differentiate the nuances of liberal theory (liberal Republicans, commercial and military interdependence, cognitive, sociological and institutional). To refer to civil society actors I will stop at two. Republicans, for example, Michael Doyle, will assert that liberal peace is based on the existence of a moral community and respect international norms, democratic openness, transparency strengthens the international regime. Institutionalists assert that international rules and institutions are based on common values \u200b\u200band interests, vision Grotian ethics and international law says that this growing interdependence and communication will lead to a global civilization. These ideas of community
international morality, common standards are brought up because the foundation will give foundation to the role of nonstate actors in the international world. Many authors claim that some are James Rosenau, a political scientist and internationalist contemporaneous with the idea of \u200b\u200bglobal or cosmopolitan city like Kant. Diane
Panke and Thomas Risse noted that authors such as Alexander Wendt stopped to consider how those standards come from sociology proposed theory constructivist claim that would result establishing the interaction of individuals. These authors, away from the structural analysis to give more importance to the actors in the structure, contrary to the royalists. The English school will also focus on the interactions and the elements of cooperation between the actors giving rise to understand the present international system where state actors have increased their power of influence and participation. In fact, constructivist others cited by Bull, one of the most relevant figures of the English school.
It is important to study the approach to be made about the rules, international rules and institutions and international society to address the issue of non-state actors and their political, diplomatic and cooperation in the international system. Bull
interpretation of shared common assumptions or premises diplomatic summarizes three types of rules: 1) the main policy principles of world politics, 2) the rules of coexistence, 3) cooperation between states. But these rules are not sufficient to explain the international order, they must be communicated, interpreted, legitimated, and protected by international society institutions either balance of power, international law, diplomacy, concert of great powers. Since then the combination between rules and institutions key to the international order. Tim Dunne notes the convergence of the conventional English school constructivist Wendt Ruggie or because both are set in the interstate order as a fundamental social sphere where social agents as a key area where actors such as socialized States following rules and conventions.
However, the English school will differ by saying that the real actors in international society are diplomatic leaders who think and act on behalf of States and their institutions. Bull difference international society of world society, which regards the interests and values \u200b\u200bshared by the entire human community.
Identity of the actors and the social process of diffusion of standards (constructivist actor-centric) mimics the observation, democratic peace constructivism liberal theory. Then there are similarities between these theories. Liberal structuralist theory, as neorealist theory provides two explanations for cooperation in the West after the Second World War is the balance of power and hegemony. Ikenberry For Deudney and transnational relations have been derived from the hegemonic power, resorting to a more realistic-like but nevertheless takes the Republicans claim that "the Western mind, common standards and political identities give this place political cohesion and solidarity. "
response to the question of whether I agree with the realists, with a negative answer and I choose English as the school that best defines and clarifies that despite being anarchic international system is governed by rules and there is a degree of order that the order international order is different from home. This idea contradicts the concept of the inevitable clash between the states of the realists and neo-realists.
The teacher and then colleague Bull, Charles Manning attributed to international law to international order and Hedley Bull does to international society, yet both claim the possibility of establishing an order in an anarchist society. As Stanley Hoffman said in the foreword to "The Company anarchy" of H. Bull, it was "too indebted to Grotius to Machiavellian and Hobbesian and Kantian too statist for and cosmopolitan." Following the analysis of Hoffman, Bull ultimately takes three ideas dismissed by Waltz, norms and common interests arising from transnational relations, the undeniable interdependence between states and international institutions. These concepts summarize the observations made so far and help to understand the current international system where state actors are systematically involved and influence political decision-making. When
Linklater and Suganami school studying English and Bull's arguments to show that Grotius Oppenheim disagreed with regard to the sources of law, the first based on natural law and the second in the positivist system. Bull rescues the contribution of Grotius's natural law for solidarity and justice that applies to international relations and Oppeheim in the historical events and bend to pluralism.
The three objectives of the global society of Bull 1) peace and security, 2) social and economic justice, 3) environmental protection are the ultimate goals that are generally agreed upon by the international community and persecuted by society civil and what will give legitimacy in acting in the international system together with the States in search of order, noting that order is not defined by Bull as a value, an end to achieve but a situation or state of affairs real or possible (which point Unlike Kantian cosmopolitan). Moral community of humanity that prioritizes Grotius, Bull's ransom for the justification of humanitarian intervention. In conclusion, Bull's international society evolves in the direction of increased solidarity, normative aspirations to be taken by States and finally we see that in Bullde analysis of the interaction and relationships of actors in the international system results not only the existence but also the importance of other actors of international society.
2. The civil society organizations, which have been considered in the international system as secondary players traditionally low-power and influence in international politics have gained popularity in recent years in which it has been characterized by the global phenomenon known process as globalization. The domestic incorporation of international norms and laws leads to the homogenization that through epistemic communities and the power of broadcasting and communication in the era of globalization, facilitated by new communication technologies and Information (ICTs). As Manuel Castells noted in the information age that makes even the political leadership is dependent on the media and new technology.
INGOs tend to the consolidation of strategies, activities taken for the provision of ICTs for communication and networking. The same international standards permit such activities proliferate. Epistemic communities conceptualized by constructivists take center stage in studies of international relations in a globalized world where knowledge is disseminated through various means used by them, especially when it relates to public policy that spread and different countries adopt similar models of governance promoted by the interaction of networks, individuals and civil society. States but do not acknowledge it, are more influenced by these and obey their logic more than they would like to admit.
Liberals argue that multinational enterprises and strengthen the pattern of international economic policy also justify the participation of NGOs as a means of strengthening democracy. Liberals give rise to a fertile ground for the proliferation of NGOs as promoting freedom of expression, assembly, participation and other rights that under the rule of law and democracy are fundamental. Undoubtedly
is a two way street, globalization leads to the proliferation of NGOs and their strengthening, as we said in the facilitation of media, working in a network, the dissemination of democratic values \u200b\u200bworldwide, etc. and on the other hand, the same NGOs collaborate to create bonds of interdependence and do commercial ties in the economic and the dissemination of values \u200b\u200band knowledge globally.
Andrew Hurrell is an author who argues that globalization has facilitated the spread of values, knowledge and ideas and enables the connection of these groups interests and the organization beyond national borders. Refers to those organizations which transnational civil society is self-organized and relatively interdependent are both public authorities and private economic actors, who are able to act collectively and to pursue their interests and values. Hurrell examines four issues on which civil society will take care on the basis of social order, international law undermines the concept of sovereignty which endorses the concept of legal order, the power of transnational networks for global governance, international action based on an interstate relationship challenged by the growing relations existing public-private partnership in pursuit of finding balance in local and international governance and finally the issue of legitimacy, intergovernmental transnational networks has a legitimacy that transnational networks of non-State actors have in terms of representativeness.
If we speak of globalization we must conceptualize it, and especially want to highlight the distinction that has made Michael Zurn between interdependence and globalization. While the notion of interdependence is a growing sensitivity and vulnerability among different units, globalization refers to the "unification" merging of units.
interdependence among states for the system is establishing Westphalian state. Bull is the author analyzes the concept of international society and Zurn it takes to point out that without interdependence of states, there can be no U.S. company. Zurn coined the term denationalization of society "societal desnationalization" as a process to define the starting point is the national society.
During the last two or three decades the growth of international institutions could change the constitution of world politics as part of this process of political globalization. The proliferation of NGOs has been as much as OI.
We must differentiate the role of non-state actors of intergovernmental when many times it refers to the global civil society actors can be mixed both by nature are very different. For this, I'll just pause a moment in the conceptualization that makes the international jurist Diez de Velasco on international organizations (IOs) that we are interested in how it affects the international community. The author suggests that the presence of OI in international life is favoring humanization, socialization and democratization of the organization itself. First, have served as forums where they have sprouted new values \u200b\u200b(human rights, environmental protection). Second, have encouraged the incorporation of new actors, as individuals (to be les reconoce derechos) y las ONGs (estado consultivo). En tercer lugar, han dado voz no sólo a diplomáticos o representantes de gobierno sino también a otros sectores. Ej. OIT foro tripartito. En cuarto lugar, han dado lugar a la creación de red de relaciones en torno a las OI, red del derecho internacional (comunidades espistémicas).
Volviendo a Zurn, estudiamos que es la regulación de la relación entre estados pero además entre actores de la sociedad internacional podría responder a la transnacionalización. Los efectos estructurales pueden ser separados en 2 categorías: 1) Reducción de la distancia y las diferencias de los estados, y 2) Desafío de las capacidades de los estados nación unilaterally to achieve its objectives of governance. Not for nothing, Giddens said that "civil society is the terrain on which they are to develop democratic attitudes."
addition, Dirk Messner mentioned that the architecture of global governance must develop strategies for solving border problems and global action at various levels along the local-global axis. This is not to transfer the elements of national policy (sovereignty, majoritarian democracy, etc) to the various levels of overall structure. Among the challenges of global governance highlights the development of mechanisms and institutional structures to ensure effectiveness of policy in the architecture of global governance, the transformation of democracy in the globalization process, but overall social integration in an interdependent world, how they can mobilize and stabilize cohesive social forces.
I think it is clear that non-state actors have a role to play in international politics and in fact the place was already taken by international bodies, intergovernmental express the will of the states and state institutions themselves are increasingly being generated permanent spaces and institutionalized participation of NGOs. We conclude that in these political changes that occur with greater international interdependence with loss of state power in the hands of transnational corporations, regional or supranational legislation and adoption of international standards are also sum NGOs. The rescue is the concept of governance that contribute to the international system when state actors interact with non-state actors.
The civil society networks provide opportunities for participation to the public with greater legitimacy that often the same state, so you should take advantage of this democratic experience and cooperate in the construction of international society desired by Republicans. 
Click
1. The classical school of realism in the international system denies any actor other than the State. Later, neo-realism recognizes that the State is the principal actor and that there are other actors that emerge in the second image of Kenneth Waltz, the home area, but not decisive for the third image that is international. These other international actors, these are the International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) are considered epiphenomena, mere reflections of the will of the state. However, neither realists nor neorealist reflect the true and actual role that state actors are in the international world.
society actors Civil perhaps were not considered in the classical literature of international relations as we know it today to INGOs, yet if they were taken into account in a broader concept that will lead to the emergence of INGOs in concept evolved. Examples are the partnership of I. Kant and the center of public life considered by Hegel and Marx. Also, when the liberals argue that one of the main objectives of the state is to protect the individual, which is necessary for peace, harmony and international cooperation, you are giving such importance to the individual who said that the state is seeking the interests of individuals, giving importance their political participation, freedom of the individual, economic and political. Will these individuals, who make up civil society, the sum of the action of each shape the common good as the liberal vision. Today, in the twenty-first century is an academic consensus that civil society goes beyond the domestic sphere to the international and has a prominent role in international politics. So says Mary Kaldor, "civil society is no longer confined to the borders of the territorial state" and "civil society is in the process of helping to form and be constituted by a system of rules." In this system of rules we will later from Grotian vision rescued by the English school to make an approach to the notion of global civil society. Furthermore, it indicated that Thomas Risse and in the seventies was focused studies of international relations in the private sector multinational corporations in the nineties have focused on the field of nonprofit organizations, transnational . Serbin agree with the non-state actors in the foreground are not only the transnational corporations and multinational companies, but a group of organizations and movements that make up a new international benchmark in ambiguous figure of a little-defined global civil society.
The point is to determine how much and in what situations or how they influence these actors.
As more and more multinational INGOs involved in international affairs, more influential have these actors, in a tendency for non-hierarchical relations, democratization and participation of all in perspective of governance. INGOs have power to influence world public opinion that is a factor in decisions of state governments and the international consensus.
Following the review of the theories of international relations about the role of non-state actors, we recall the statement Zacher and Matthew's in liberal theory argues that international relations are developing in greater freedom of human beings and that peace, justice and welfare, it is possible greatly to international cooperation. Cooperation that can influence the acceptance of moral standards, adherence to international law and cooperation through international organizations. International cooperation has included non-state actors in the projects and financing that was once exclusively for state actors. Economic cooperation is among the main topics of the international agenda and INGOs sit by States at international conferences through the empowerment they gained by this same cooperation. The authors referred to differentiate the nuances of liberal theory (liberal Republicans, commercial and military interdependence, cognitive, sociological and institutional). To refer to civil society actors I will stop at two. Republicans, for example, Michael Doyle, will assert that liberal peace is based on the existence of a moral community and respect international norms, democratic openness, transparency strengthens the international regime. Institutionalists assert that international rules and institutions are based on common values \u200b\u200band interests, vision Grotian ethics and international law says that this growing interdependence and communication will lead to a global civilization. These ideas of community
international morality, common standards are brought up because the foundation will give foundation to the role of nonstate actors in the international world. Many authors claim that some are James Rosenau, a political scientist and internationalist contemporaneous with the idea of \u200b\u200bglobal or cosmopolitan city like Kant. Diane
Panke and Thomas Risse noted that authors such as Alexander Wendt stopped to consider how those standards come from sociology proposed theory constructivist claim that would result establishing the interaction of individuals. These authors, away from the structural analysis to give more importance to the actors in the structure, contrary to the royalists. The English school will also focus on the interactions and the elements of cooperation between the actors giving rise to understand the present international system where state actors have increased their power of influence and participation. In fact, constructivist others cited by Bull, one of the most relevant figures of the English school.
It is important to study the approach to be made about the rules, international rules and institutions and international society to address the issue of non-state actors and their political, diplomatic and cooperation in the international system. Bull
interpretation of shared common assumptions or premises diplomatic summarizes three types of rules: 1) the main policy principles of world politics, 2) the rules of coexistence, 3) cooperation between states. But these rules are not sufficient to explain the international order, they must be communicated, interpreted, legitimated, and protected by international society institutions either balance of power, international law, diplomacy, concert of great powers. Since then the combination between rules and institutions key to the international order. Tim Dunne notes the convergence of the conventional English school constructivist Wendt Ruggie or because both are set in the interstate order as a fundamental social sphere where social agents as a key area where actors such as socialized States following rules and conventions.
However, the English school will differ by saying that the real actors in international society are diplomatic leaders who think and act on behalf of States and their institutions. Bull difference international society of world society, which regards the interests and values \u200b\u200bshared by the entire human community.
Identity of the actors and the social process of diffusion of standards (constructivist actor-centric) mimics the observation, democratic peace constructivism liberal theory. Then there are similarities between these theories. Liberal structuralist theory, as neorealist theory provides two explanations for cooperation in the West after the Second World War is the balance of power and hegemony. Ikenberry For Deudney and transnational relations have been derived from the hegemonic power, resorting to a more realistic-like but nevertheless takes the Republicans claim that "the Western mind, common standards and political identities give this place political cohesion and solidarity. "
response to the question of whether I agree with the realists, with a negative answer and I choose English as the school that best defines and clarifies that despite being anarchic international system is governed by rules and there is a degree of order that the order international order is different from home. This idea contradicts the concept of the inevitable clash between the states of the realists and neo-realists.
The teacher and then colleague Bull, Charles Manning attributed to international law to international order and Hedley Bull does to international society, yet both claim the possibility of establishing an order in an anarchist society. As Stanley Hoffman said in the foreword to "The Company anarchy" of H. Bull, it was "too indebted to Grotius to Machiavellian and Hobbesian and Kantian too statist for and cosmopolitan." Following the analysis of Hoffman, Bull ultimately takes three ideas dismissed by Waltz, norms and common interests arising from transnational relations, the undeniable interdependence between states and international institutions. These concepts summarize the observations made so far and help to understand the current international system where state actors are systematically involved and influence political decision-making. When
Linklater and Suganami school studying English and Bull's arguments to show that Grotius Oppenheim disagreed with regard to the sources of law, the first based on natural law and the second in the positivist system. Bull rescues the contribution of Grotius's natural law for solidarity and justice that applies to international relations and Oppeheim in the historical events and bend to pluralism.
The three objectives of the global society of Bull 1) peace and security, 2) social and economic justice, 3) environmental protection are the ultimate goals that are generally agreed upon by the international community and persecuted by society civil and what will give legitimacy in acting in the international system together with the States in search of order, noting that order is not defined by Bull as a value, an end to achieve but a situation or state of affairs real or possible (which point Unlike Kantian cosmopolitan). Moral community of humanity that prioritizes Grotius, Bull's ransom for the justification of humanitarian intervention. In conclusion, Bull's international society evolves in the direction of increased solidarity, normative aspirations to be taken by States and finally we see that in Bullde analysis of the interaction and relationships of actors in the international system results not only the existence but also the importance of other actors of international society.
2. The civil society organizations, which have been considered in the international system as secondary players traditionally low-power and influence in international politics have gained popularity in recent years in which it has been characterized by the global phenomenon known process as globalization. The domestic incorporation of international norms and laws leads to the homogenization that through epistemic communities and the power of broadcasting and communication in the era of globalization, facilitated by new communication technologies and Information (ICTs). As Manuel Castells noted in the information age that makes even the political leadership is dependent on the media and new technology.
INGOs tend to the consolidation of strategies, activities taken for the provision of ICTs for communication and networking. The same international standards permit such activities proliferate. Epistemic communities conceptualized by constructivists take center stage in studies of international relations in a globalized world where knowledge is disseminated through various means used by them, especially when it relates to public policy that spread and different countries adopt similar models of governance promoted by the interaction of networks, individuals and civil society. States but do not acknowledge it, are more influenced by these and obey their logic more than they would like to admit.
Liberals argue that multinational enterprises and strengthen the pattern of international economic policy also justify the participation of NGOs as a means of strengthening democracy. Liberals give rise to a fertile ground for the proliferation of NGOs as promoting freedom of expression, assembly, participation and other rights that under the rule of law and democracy are fundamental. Undoubtedly
is a two way street, globalization leads to the proliferation of NGOs and their strengthening, as we said in the facilitation of media, working in a network, the dissemination of democratic values \u200b\u200bworldwide, etc. and on the other hand, the same NGOs collaborate to create bonds of interdependence and do commercial ties in the economic and the dissemination of values \u200b\u200band knowledge globally.
Andrew Hurrell is an author who argues that globalization has facilitated the spread of values, knowledge and ideas and enables the connection of these groups interests and the organization beyond national borders. Refers to those organizations which transnational civil society is self-organized and relatively interdependent are both public authorities and private economic actors, who are able to act collectively and to pursue their interests and values. Hurrell examines four issues on which civil society will take care on the basis of social order, international law undermines the concept of sovereignty which endorses the concept of legal order, the power of transnational networks for global governance, international action based on an interstate relationship challenged by the growing relations existing public-private partnership in pursuit of finding balance in local and international governance and finally the issue of legitimacy, intergovernmental transnational networks has a legitimacy that transnational networks of non-State actors have in terms of representativeness.
If we speak of globalization we must conceptualize it, and especially want to highlight the distinction that has made Michael Zurn between interdependence and globalization. While the notion of interdependence is a growing sensitivity and vulnerability among different units, globalization refers to the "unification" merging of units.
interdependence among states for the system is establishing Westphalian state. Bull is the author analyzes the concept of international society and Zurn it takes to point out that without interdependence of states, there can be no U.S. company. Zurn coined the term denationalization of society "societal desnationalization" as a process to define the starting point is the national society.
During the last two or three decades the growth of international institutions could change the constitution of world politics as part of this process of political globalization. The proliferation of NGOs has been as much as OI.
We must differentiate the role of non-state actors of intergovernmental when many times it refers to the global civil society actors can be mixed both by nature are very different. For this, I'll just pause a moment in the conceptualization that makes the international jurist Diez de Velasco on international organizations (IOs) that we are interested in how it affects the international community. The author suggests that the presence of OI in international life is favoring humanization, socialization and democratization of the organization itself. First, have served as forums where they have sprouted new values \u200b\u200b(human rights, environmental protection). Second, have encouraged the incorporation of new actors, as individuals (to be les reconoce derechos) y las ONGs (estado consultivo). En tercer lugar, han dado voz no sólo a diplomáticos o representantes de gobierno sino también a otros sectores. Ej. OIT foro tripartito. En cuarto lugar, han dado lugar a la creación de red de relaciones en torno a las OI, red del derecho internacional (comunidades espistémicas).
Volviendo a Zurn, estudiamos que es la regulación de la relación entre estados pero además entre actores de la sociedad internacional podría responder a la transnacionalización. Los efectos estructurales pueden ser separados en 2 categorías: 1) Reducción de la distancia y las diferencias de los estados, y 2) Desafío de las capacidades de los estados nación unilaterally to achieve its objectives of governance. Not for nothing, Giddens said that "civil society is the terrain on which they are to develop democratic attitudes."
addition, Dirk Messner mentioned that the architecture of global governance must develop strategies for solving border problems and global action at various levels along the local-global axis. This is not to transfer the elements of national policy (sovereignty, majoritarian democracy, etc) to the various levels of overall structure. Among the challenges of global governance highlights the development of mechanisms and institutional structures to ensure effectiveness of policy in the architecture of global governance, the transformation of democracy in the globalization process, but overall social integration in an interdependent world, how they can mobilize and stabilize cohesive social forces.
I think it is clear that non-state actors have a role to play in international politics and in fact the place was already taken by international bodies, intergovernmental express the will of the states and state institutions themselves are increasingly being generated permanent spaces and institutionalized participation of NGOs. We conclude that in these political changes that occur with greater international interdependence with loss of state power in the hands of transnational corporations, regional or supranational legislation and adoption of international standards are also sum NGOs. The rescue is the concept of governance that contribute to the international system when state actors interact with non-state actors.
The civil society networks provide opportunities for participation to the public with greater legitimacy that often the same state, so you should take advantage of this democratic experience and cooperate in the construction of international society desired by Republicans.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
How To Get Headscissors Legs
Obi Road: Everything about Nihon
There is a person whom I love trying to cross the pedestrian crossing of the Beatles. His path is written asphalt cities, looking for studies, arrangers, musicians. Mine is written on silk.
I always wonder what is beautiful as it looks, what about harmony and peace Where is the moment of beauty in that way? Only I see the end, when the songs sound. I think an artistic work very arduous, fraught with difficulties and edges, filled with harshness and discomfort. I do not understand what the meaning if not the moment when the music plays, when the bird breaks into song.
Bilbao presented a gold wrist writing a track with the belt of her silk dress. It was an image that had been announced by The Wayfarer , the pilgrim, another character who is part of a space journey. I wanted to express the possibility that the road itself is in the wrist, the wrist is (the trace) the way ... Does the wrist path for what?
Bilbao people approached the stand and looked very pretty. But perhaps others as they occur to me with the way my friend. They do not understand why one makes dolls. And why the dolls express things beyond being beautiful. I can explain why I make each of my wrists, if someone asks. There is a pleasure, an intention and beauty searched, in the process of making as in the to make them see. Others admire, try to replicate, imitate, or they take away the soul with every picture, forgetting that only make sense as "presence" and "experience" of the paper. I would rather not talk and it was everyone who found a way to understand, convirténdolas part of their own life experience.
If I chose to fold paper was not to have to express and feel in words but through folds and gestures that are objects. A great teacher of mine said that I practice Veronica Aesthetics of see-ikon , true icon, where things are, not an image from another image, but True Image, Imago Veritas, an image of truth. You are absolutely right. The meaning in Japanese aesthetics is an absolute literalness.
Obi Road, by the way of a silk obi.
© Origlam, Obi twisted paper.
I always wonder what is beautiful as it looks, what about harmony and peace Where is the moment of beauty in that way? Only I see the end, when the songs sound. I think an artistic work very arduous, fraught with difficulties and edges, filled with harshness and discomfort. I do not understand what the meaning if not the moment when the music plays, when the bird breaks into song.
Bilbao presented a gold wrist writing a track with the belt of her silk dress. It was an image that had been announced by The Wayfarer , the pilgrim, another character who is part of a space journey. I wanted to express the possibility that the road itself is in the wrist, the wrist is (the trace) the way ... Does the wrist path for what?
Bilbao people approached the stand and looked very pretty. But perhaps others as they occur to me with the way my friend. They do not understand why one makes dolls. And why the dolls express things beyond being beautiful. I can explain why I make each of my wrists, if someone asks. There is a pleasure, an intention and beauty searched, in the process of making as in the to make them see. Others admire, try to replicate, imitate, or they take away the soul with every picture, forgetting that only make sense as "presence" and "experience" of the paper. I would rather not talk and it was everyone who found a way to understand, convirténdolas part of their own life experience.
If I chose to fold paper was not to have to express and feel in words but through folds and gestures that are objects. A great teacher of mine said that I practice Veronica Aesthetics of see-ikon , true icon, where things are, not an image from another image, but True Image, Imago Veritas, an image of truth. You are absolutely right. The meaning in Japanese aesthetics is an absolute literalness.
Obi Road, by the way of a silk obi.
© Origlam, Obi twisted paper.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Public Shower Shaving
sorry if it takes several years
still leave you.
Pedro Salinas
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Monday, November 8, 2010
Clear Retainer For Lip Piercing
Chaya - origami in Bilbao and Fukusa
¡Os esperamos a todos!
Fecha: Sábado 13 y Doming 14 de Noviembre
Lugar: Pabellón de Deportes “Bilbao Arena” de Miribilla (Bilbao)
Actividades de Origami
Los próximos días 13 y 14 de noviembre se celebra en Bilbao el gran festival internacional dedicado a la cultura japonesa NIHON JAIA . Multitud de actividades en todas sus artes y manifestaciones culturales para degustar o iniciarse en aquello que os resulte más curioso.
Participaré con una conferencia sobre los origenes del origami en la tradición samurai y un taller para niñas de muñecas japonesas de papel, pero además podréis ver de cerca una exposición de mis mejores washi ningyo, en uno de los stands comerciales con producto a la venta. Nos llevaremos también para que las veáis algunas piezas de mis alumnas.
Otras actividades de origami organizadas por Bizkaiko Origami Taldea , el grupo de papiroflexia de Bilbao que lleva ya tiempo abriendo terreno en la divulgación del Origami en el País Vasco. Gracias a ellos y su labor continuada en años anteriores el origami ocupa en este festival un espacio destacado como muestra de la cultura tradicional japonesa.
Participaré con una conferencia sobre los origenes del origami en la tradición samurai y un taller para niñas de muñecas japonesas de papel, pero además podréis ver de cerca una exposición de mis mejores washi ningyo, en uno de los stands comerciales con producto a la venta. Nos llevaremos también para que las veáis algunas piezas de mis alumnas.
Otras actividades de origami organizadas por Bizkaiko Origami Taldea , el grupo de papiroflexia de Bilbao que lleva ya tiempo abriendo terreno en la divulgación del Origami en el País Vasco. Gracias a ellos y su labor continuada en años anteriores el origami ocupa en este festival un espacio destacado como muestra de la cultura tradicional japonesa.
¡Os esperamos a todos!
Fecha: Sábado 13 y Doming 14 de Noviembre
Lugar: Pabellón de Deportes “Bilbao Arena” de Miribilla (Bilbao)
Actividades de Origami
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Saturday, November 6, 2010
What Does Error On Carbon Monoxide Detector Mean
Furoshiki
In our course and Fukusa Furoshiki Home Asia were particularly successful this year, as always, the packaging of bottles.
As for the models furoshiki employees this year we saw some news. A blue handkerchief with a small cabin between herbs and flowers in autumn. The print is so scenic and reloaded it is difficult to find application. A na Maria, meanwhile, brought a small collection of furoshikis fukusas cotton crepe that was abandoned in a drawer without know very well what they were. Some of his furoshikis trimmed gave excellent results for this model: the bottle to the table dressed like a Japanese girl kimono and obi.
Rosa, one of the most applied students, has gone after Nunoya to order fabrics and constructed their own tissues.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Friday, November 5, 2010
Oblivion Taking Clothes Without Killing
Asia Home Sweet Cecilia
© Paul & Origlam
'm very quiet in recent times, not published much about the blog, because I'm working on two exhibitions this month of November (tachán! presto!) And I miss the hours to double.
This wonderful lady is one of the treasures that have seen the light. Inspired by my friend Cecilia, a spiritual practitioner of yoga, I thought I should do to her body bent wrist-pun intended-and seems to have come to life.
birthday was approaching, Cecilia. She likes the soft colors, pinks and blues, and always identified with bamboo (seen in some of the crests Print). This particular blue paper had fallen in love: is blue worn as old. And the rose is a rose is also off, almost salmon. I finished playing with a disproportionate number of combs of flowers, as always imagine Cecilia's face framed with a wreath of flowers my origami. The stamping plant includes traditional heraldry ume-take-matsu (the three friends of winter) on a background of shibori and has everything he a romantic, old, innocent and traditional.
thing about this wonderful lady is now impossible for me to let go of it because there is something secret in his speech that goes beyond the original inspiration.
I'm not sure what this doll is still ... but it is something that has to do with the fragile fortress of solitude.
Origami, Art, Buddhism, Glam 
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Gettyimages Watermarks
my grandfather Dori
My grandfather I have not had the opportunity to meet long since separated my grandmother when my mother was a child. As a child I was told that he lived far away and traveled a lot. My uncle once told me about how memorable his crossing of the Andes in glider, which was the first in history on October 30, 1956 along with a German friend, but now I see it as the story of my grandfather has passed Argentina's history and the history of the Flyers.
That story and the story of how he met my grandmother Pearl when she was taking flying lessons and became enamored with the instructor, are part of the family history. Today
googling to find some info and see it up in wikipedia .
"First crossing of the Andes with two gliders. Glider Sky High registration LV-EEN and IA-41 flying wing "Vulture", piloted by Dori Claudio (Argentina) and Heinz Schidhauer (German) Airman Institute of Cordoba. Takeoff from San Carlos de Bariloche and land in Ensenada (Chile), after 3h 30 m flight. 
Meeting in a blog photo Dori Claudio planner, he crossed the Andes, Chile bound . For more info: (http://www1.rionegro.com.ar/arch200311/01/v01j18.php)
No glider crossed the ridge and made history but here in Chile I'm remembering the story of my family at home trasandino, closer than you think. 
My grandfather I have not had the opportunity to meet long since separated my grandmother when my mother was a child. As a child I was told that he lived far away and traveled a lot. My uncle once told me about how memorable his crossing of the Andes in glider, which was the first in history on October 30, 1956 along with a German friend, but now I see it as the story of my grandfather has passed Argentina's history and the history of the Flyers.
That story and the story of how he met my grandmother Pearl when she was taking flying lessons and became enamored with the instructor, are part of the family history. Today
googling to find some info and see it up in wikipedia .
"First crossing of the Andes with two gliders. Glider Sky High registration LV-EEN and IA-41 flying wing "Vulture", piloted by Dori Claudio (Argentina) and Heinz Schidhauer (German) Airman Institute of Cordoba. Takeoff from San Carlos de Bariloche and land in Ensenada (Chile), after 3h 30 m flight.
No glider crossed the ridge and made history but here in Chile I'm remembering the story of my family at home trasandino, closer than you think.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Breast Feeding Man Clip
Death of a former President
My compliments to the person, not to his thinking or his actions often embarrassed me as a breach of the agreement with Chile to send gas. But most of all respect in this day who was able to take the presidential inauguration. 
My compliments to the person, not to his thinking or his actions often embarrassed me as a breach of the agreement with Chile to send gas. But most of all respect in this day who was able to take the presidential inauguration.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Does Your Cervix Swell Before A Period
Defense Policy of Argentina in tune hemispheric discursive analysis
In October of 2003 in Mexico City, members of the Organization of American States adopted the "Declaration on Security in the Americas, including Argentina was. Here, consensus was reached on the concept of hemispheric security as shared by the States: "Our new concept of security in the Hemisphere is multidimensional in scope, includes traditional threats and new threats, concerns and other challenges to the security of states in the Hemisphere, incorporates the priorities of each state, contributes to the consolidation of peace, integral development and social justice, and is based on democratic values, respect, promotion and defense of human rights, solidarity, cooperation and respect for national sovereignty. " Also defined the threats to the security of states in the Hemisphere, among which are listed both traditional and nontraditional, which are: "terrorism, transnational organized crime, the global drug problem, corruption, money laundering, illicit arms trafficking and connections among them, the extreme poverty and social exclusion of broad sectors of the population, which also affect stability and democracy. Extreme poverty erodes social cohesion and undermines the security of States, natural disasters and human-induced, HIV / AIDS and other diseases, other health risks and environmental degradation, human trafficking, the cyber security attacks, the possibility of damage to arise in the case of an accident or incident during the maritime transport of hazardous materials, including petroleum and radioactive materials and toxic waste, and the possibility of access, possession and use of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery by terrorists. "
It is from this concept and the threats listed in Mexico in 2003, analyzed the defense policy of Argentina and the threats received by this state. Upon recognition of the changing nature and diversity of threats, you should assume the difficulty of defining, in advance, the profile of the challenges ahead. For one thing, remain valid classical security threats, which cause the integrity of States and which strategic uncertainty advised not to totally abandon, though in the case of Argentina there is no possibility of conflict with any other State today.
The threats identified in Mexico are the same threats considered in the Defence White Paper of Argentina which analyzes the international scene after the end of the Cold War and includes additional elements of threats to national and regional level. In Argentina, where democratic governments and reform of domestic legislation was giving rise to this change in perspective of a realistic policy to an institutionalist as crystallized in the National Defense Act of 1988 where he accepted a multidimensional concept of security.
On terrorism, Argentina has undergone in the nineties two terrorist attacks on the AMIA and the Embassy of Israel, and is currently observed by the presence of members of Al Qaeda and Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Triple Border with Paraguay and Brazil. On the border with Bolivia, northern Argentina, in Jujuy province precisely, not officially confirmed the presence of FARC troops.
As for organized crime and drug trafficking, and was alerted to the President of Argentina, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner by the same President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon that the events in the case of the "Path of Ephedrine" in which are Mexicans and Argentines involved, evidenced the beginning of serious drug problem in Argentina.
Among the threats from environmental degradation, as the definition de México no se puede dejar de mencionar el conflicto diplomático que llegó incluso a la Corte Internacional por las papeleras finlandesas radicadas en tierras uruguayas a orillas del Río Uruguay que establece el límite con Argentina.
La trata de personas, tema de la agenda parlamentaria del país, por la alerta de un informe de la Organización de Naciones Unidas en septiembre último donde indicaba el grave aumento de los casos en Argentina, no deja de tener prioridad entre las amenazas que son reconocidas.
Por otro lado, cuando se mencionan a enfermedades, más allá del SIDA, en Argentina se tienen dos amenazas latentes, una el del Mal de Chagas con epicentro en la provincia de Santiago del Estero, donde la insect vector is multiplied with the growth of poverty in recent years. Moreover, dengue in the last year has come to threaten even the population of the Province of Buenos Aires, which normally threatening disease in Brazil and Paraguay, came to the border provinces of Misiones, Chaco and Corrientes.
As for the threats of natural disasters in Argentina are mild, usually are floods and landslides caused by the growth of rivers, humid provinces and in central and southern Iraq, the threat slight earthquakes, droughts and the Northeast hurricane winds or heavy storms that left little casualties year but no less important. However, Argentina, from the White Helmets initiative has had a prominent role in humanitarian assistance, which together with the UN peacekeepers have helped to mention the latter cases, the earthquakes in Haiti and humanitarian assistance in 2005 after the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina in the United States. The White Helmets since 1994 have participated in its creation, from assisting in the reintegration of refugees in Angola, to help after the supermarket fire in Paraguay in 2007 to Hurricane Rita, Stan and Dennis in Cuba Central American countries in 2008.
Extreme poverty is a rising threat in a country in which the economy does not facilitate pro-cyclical development of the family groups and social level, an increase in the number of undernourished, with alarming rates of infant and maternal mortality primarily in provinces such as Formosa, Tucumán and Santiago del Estero.
A performance level of economic risk, Argentina must face lower soybean prices, the decline in meat production and institutional levels to face the crisis of the INDEC and Central Bank and the international perception of failure external debt and the nationalization of the economy generated more economically dependent on the international finance system, investments, so has weakened the country. This in the broadest sense of the defense, which includes economic factors also enter human development. In my opinion, these are factors that influence state policy of a country, that when looking for their autonomy, influence in the region on the other aspects mentioned above, is violated. An economically undeveloped country is vulnerable to corruption, trafficking in arms and drugs, in that it finds fertile ground for people hungry for economic improvement that would not otherwise meet. Like when we say that a well-paid police tends to a lesser degree of corruption.
The White Book of Defense of Argentina recognizes the emergence of new actors on the world stage, citing the Civil Society Organizations, social groups and even the impact of public opinion on the decision to act with respect to conflicts . This again points to a departure from the realistic state-centric view of international relations, and even when mentioned phenomena such as globalization widens the spectrum of issues related to national defense. We could say therefore that the defense policy of Argentina is consistent with the definition so broad and yet so confused by the OAS in Mexico 2003.
The recognition of new players goes hand in hand with changes that have occurred since the end of the Cold War in the nineties, with the emergence of new forms of political violence, urban violence, linked to ethnic or religious rivalries and often linked to serious economic and social frames. In the case of Argentina-city violence is given by dissatisfaction with the social and economic demands that society makes the Argentine government, so the internal conflict has mutated with new moves such as the "picketers" demonstrations with banging on pots and marches against violence, to "express" kidnappings as for Blumberg, etc. "
result, here the logic of a broad definition of security is adequate, comprehensive approach to security, not only in military and police and not absence of conflict with other interstate and international actors state, but also in internal conflicts derivation of extreme poverty and economic factors as defined above. Is then placed on the concept of national security, food security, health security, environmental security, economic security, employment and social implying that it is the same state-building process, with internal problems to be solved the Government to maintain its authority and effectiveness of governance itself. Mix the concept of security that is at a political level of national defense should be at a strategic policy.
Other evidence of that change in thinking on national defense, is the distribution of state resources, which has lost importance and is not privileged national security issues in the design of the national budget, as well as being reduced recent years the democratic period and has slandered the armed forces, security forces have increased corruption cases, including environmental safety. This is because with the advent of democracy in the region and resolving most pending boundary with neighboring countries, especially in Chile during the nineties, the military defense has been lacking in the design of national policy . This changes the traditional sense of national defense based on the possibility of conflict with neighbors when it is estimated that there will be changes in the delineation of borders. You can make the exception of national defense policy for the Falkland Islands where the dispute over sovereignty remains in force with the United Kingdom. Still, the hypothesis to go to war and armed conflict in this matter is off the table.
is reached in the analysis to see the option for a logic of cooperation rather idealistic or liberal, which was based Combined Peace Force "Cruz Del Sur, bilateral force in Argentina and Chile which has its antecedents in the integration of Mission contingent UNFICYP in Cyprus and mutual cooperation that both countries are currently provided in the MINUSTAH mission in Haiti.
This type of defense policy initiatives at the regional joint have increased in recent years, when intertwined with partnerships and / or regional pre-existing security systems with new partnerships with projection strategic. Such policies expand the sources of legitimacy of military spending and open up a significant area of \u200b\u200boperational activity of the Armed Forces cooperative purposes and regional stability. Now that the formation of MERCOSUR in 1991, it was expected the integration of forces at the regional level, as reflected in the restructuring of the internal forces by the Homeland Security Act passed in the same year.
If 88% of resources are used to pay staff, as indicated in the budget as published by the Ministry of Defence, it is impossible to agree on a defense policy without purchase of fixed assets, weapons or upgrade the existing maintenance , as has happened that was sent for scrapping the only aircraft carrier or as the icebreaker was he was out of use for more than a year because they can not have the budget to fix it. So here's cooperation with other countries in the region becomes essential and very utilitarian in the sense of complementarity of national resources with regional expansion towards a national defense to a regional defense. This can be configured in the current circumstances of peace and regional cooperation that is unprecedented, driven by the United Nations 60 years ago but made effective in the last 20 in the region, as noted in the General Assembly in 2005, "In a world where they live globalization and interdependence, no state can stand wholly alone. We acknowledge that collective security depends on effective cooperation that, in accordance with international law, against transnational threats. " We refer here to these threats that transcend borders (today's globalized terrorism, immigration, drug trafficking, organized crime, etc), so the importance of regional and multilateral cooperation.
Argentina has lost prominence in international politics, that initially the creation of forces for peace operations, UN instrument for preserving peace and security and rapid deployment, went hand in hand with a nation's aspiration to a possible reform of the Security Council to win a permanent seat, an aspiration that fell into the hands of regional giant Brazil, which has done its homework on the subject in an impeccable to ensure that post and the role that means in terms of regional security.
In conclusion with respect to that referred to peace operations, the joint forces with Chile's Cruz del Sur, or the training given to troops CAECOPAZ joint (Argentine Joint Training Center for Peacekeeping Operations), change of logic cooperative defense policy, which is ultimately part of the definition of security given in Mexico.
As has been expanding security in a positive manner to recognize non-state actors, and regionalization from a new approach to cooperation with neighboring countries overcome the conflict hypothesis, in regard to safety military and civil defense, the definition of Mexico distorts and obscures the approach than the strategy and policies in this area must have a logical and integral cross with other government ministries, losing strength and measurability of the effectiveness of measures taken regard. Especially when Argentina has not been alien to the threats of terrorist forces have taken dominance on the agenda of global security, and arms trafficking or drug trafficking or human trafficking and other issues affecting a greater or lesser extent, security and strategic interests.
However, we can not lose sight of the contributions of institutionalists that education for peace and the promotion of democratic culture, social justice and human development, as new elements to take into account in national defense policy for institutional stability.
- Document of the OAS / Ser.K / XXXVIII of the Special Conference on Security.
- Report www.mindef.gov.ar / mission% 20of% 20paz/CRUZ% 20of% 20SUR.doc
- http://www.mindef.gov.ar/presupuesto.html
- A/RES/60/1 October 24, 2005. 
In October of 2003 in Mexico City, members of the Organization of American States adopted the "Declaration on Security in the Americas, including Argentina was. Here, consensus was reached on the concept of hemispheric security as shared by the States: "Our new concept of security in the Hemisphere is multidimensional in scope, includes traditional threats and new threats, concerns and other challenges to the security of states in the Hemisphere, incorporates the priorities of each state, contributes to the consolidation of peace, integral development and social justice, and is based on democratic values, respect, promotion and defense of human rights, solidarity, cooperation and respect for national sovereignty. " Also defined the threats to the security of states in the Hemisphere, among which are listed both traditional and nontraditional, which are: "terrorism, transnational organized crime, the global drug problem, corruption, money laundering, illicit arms trafficking and connections among them, the extreme poverty and social exclusion of broad sectors of the population, which also affect stability and democracy. Extreme poverty erodes social cohesion and undermines the security of States, natural disasters and human-induced, HIV / AIDS and other diseases, other health risks and environmental degradation, human trafficking, the cyber security attacks, the possibility of damage to arise in the case of an accident or incident during the maritime transport of hazardous materials, including petroleum and radioactive materials and toxic waste, and the possibility of access, possession and use of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery by terrorists. "
It is from this concept and the threats listed in Mexico in 2003, analyzed the defense policy of Argentina and the threats received by this state. Upon recognition of the changing nature and diversity of threats, you should assume the difficulty of defining, in advance, the profile of the challenges ahead. For one thing, remain valid classical security threats, which cause the integrity of States and which strategic uncertainty advised not to totally abandon, though in the case of Argentina there is no possibility of conflict with any other State today.
The threats identified in Mexico are the same threats considered in the Defence White Paper of Argentina which analyzes the international scene after the end of the Cold War and includes additional elements of threats to national and regional level. In Argentina, where democratic governments and reform of domestic legislation was giving rise to this change in perspective of a realistic policy to an institutionalist as crystallized in the National Defense Act of 1988 where he accepted a multidimensional concept of security.
On terrorism, Argentina has undergone in the nineties two terrorist attacks on the AMIA and the Embassy of Israel, and is currently observed by the presence of members of Al Qaeda and Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Triple Border with Paraguay and Brazil. On the border with Bolivia, northern Argentina, in Jujuy province precisely, not officially confirmed the presence of FARC troops.
As for organized crime and drug trafficking, and was alerted to the President of Argentina, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner by the same President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon that the events in the case of the "Path of Ephedrine" in which are Mexicans and Argentines involved, evidenced the beginning of serious drug problem in Argentina.
Among the threats from environmental degradation, as the definition de México no se puede dejar de mencionar el conflicto diplomático que llegó incluso a la Corte Internacional por las papeleras finlandesas radicadas en tierras uruguayas a orillas del Río Uruguay que establece el límite con Argentina.
La trata de personas, tema de la agenda parlamentaria del país, por la alerta de un informe de la Organización de Naciones Unidas en septiembre último donde indicaba el grave aumento de los casos en Argentina, no deja de tener prioridad entre las amenazas que son reconocidas.
Por otro lado, cuando se mencionan a enfermedades, más allá del SIDA, en Argentina se tienen dos amenazas latentes, una el del Mal de Chagas con epicentro en la provincia de Santiago del Estero, donde la insect vector is multiplied with the growth of poverty in recent years. Moreover, dengue in the last year has come to threaten even the population of the Province of Buenos Aires, which normally threatening disease in Brazil and Paraguay, came to the border provinces of Misiones, Chaco and Corrientes.
As for the threats of natural disasters in Argentina are mild, usually are floods and landslides caused by the growth of rivers, humid provinces and in central and southern Iraq, the threat slight earthquakes, droughts and the Northeast hurricane winds or heavy storms that left little casualties year but no less important. However, Argentina, from the White Helmets initiative has had a prominent role in humanitarian assistance, which together with the UN peacekeepers have helped to mention the latter cases, the earthquakes in Haiti and humanitarian assistance in 2005 after the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina in the United States. The White Helmets since 1994 have participated in its creation, from assisting in the reintegration of refugees in Angola, to help after the supermarket fire in Paraguay in 2007 to Hurricane Rita, Stan and Dennis in Cuba Central American countries in 2008.
Extreme poverty is a rising threat in a country in which the economy does not facilitate pro-cyclical development of the family groups and social level, an increase in the number of undernourished, with alarming rates of infant and maternal mortality primarily in provinces such as Formosa, Tucumán and Santiago del Estero.
A performance level of economic risk, Argentina must face lower soybean prices, the decline in meat production and institutional levels to face the crisis of the INDEC and Central Bank and the international perception of failure external debt and the nationalization of the economy generated more economically dependent on the international finance system, investments, so has weakened the country. This in the broadest sense of the defense, which includes economic factors also enter human development. In my opinion, these are factors that influence state policy of a country, that when looking for their autonomy, influence in the region on the other aspects mentioned above, is violated. An economically undeveloped country is vulnerable to corruption, trafficking in arms and drugs, in that it finds fertile ground for people hungry for economic improvement that would not otherwise meet. Like when we say that a well-paid police tends to a lesser degree of corruption.
The White Book of Defense of Argentina recognizes the emergence of new actors on the world stage, citing the Civil Society Organizations, social groups and even the impact of public opinion on the decision to act with respect to conflicts . This again points to a departure from the realistic state-centric view of international relations, and even when mentioned phenomena such as globalization widens the spectrum of issues related to national defense. We could say therefore that the defense policy of Argentina is consistent with the definition so broad and yet so confused by the OAS in Mexico 2003.
The recognition of new players goes hand in hand with changes that have occurred since the end of the Cold War in the nineties, with the emergence of new forms of political violence, urban violence, linked to ethnic or religious rivalries and often linked to serious economic and social frames. In the case of Argentina-city violence is given by dissatisfaction with the social and economic demands that society makes the Argentine government, so the internal conflict has mutated with new moves such as the "picketers" demonstrations with banging on pots and marches against violence, to "express" kidnappings as for Blumberg, etc. "
result, here the logic of a broad definition of security is adequate, comprehensive approach to security, not only in military and police and not absence of conflict with other interstate and international actors state, but also in internal conflicts derivation of extreme poverty and economic factors as defined above. Is then placed on the concept of national security, food security, health security, environmental security, economic security, employment and social implying that it is the same state-building process, with internal problems to be solved the Government to maintain its authority and effectiveness of governance itself. Mix the concept of security that is at a political level of national defense should be at a strategic policy.
Other evidence of that change in thinking on national defense, is the distribution of state resources, which has lost importance and is not privileged national security issues in the design of the national budget, as well as being reduced recent years the democratic period and has slandered the armed forces, security forces have increased corruption cases, including environmental safety. This is because with the advent of democracy in the region and resolving most pending boundary with neighboring countries, especially in Chile during the nineties, the military defense has been lacking in the design of national policy . This changes the traditional sense of national defense based on the possibility of conflict with neighbors when it is estimated that there will be changes in the delineation of borders. You can make the exception of national defense policy for the Falkland Islands where the dispute over sovereignty remains in force with the United Kingdom. Still, the hypothesis to go to war and armed conflict in this matter is off the table.
is reached in the analysis to see the option for a logic of cooperation rather idealistic or liberal, which was based Combined Peace Force "Cruz Del Sur, bilateral force in Argentina and Chile which has its antecedents in the integration of Mission contingent UNFICYP in Cyprus and mutual cooperation that both countries are currently provided in the MINUSTAH mission in Haiti.
This type of defense policy initiatives at the regional joint have increased in recent years, when intertwined with partnerships and / or regional pre-existing security systems with new partnerships with projection strategic. Such policies expand the sources of legitimacy of military spending and open up a significant area of \u200b\u200boperational activity of the Armed Forces cooperative purposes and regional stability. Now that the formation of MERCOSUR in 1991, it was expected the integration of forces at the regional level, as reflected in the restructuring of the internal forces by the Homeland Security Act passed in the same year.
If 88% of resources are used to pay staff, as indicated in the budget as published by the Ministry of Defence, it is impossible to agree on a defense policy without purchase of fixed assets, weapons or upgrade the existing maintenance , as has happened that was sent for scrapping the only aircraft carrier or as the icebreaker was he was out of use for more than a year because they can not have the budget to fix it. So here's cooperation with other countries in the region becomes essential and very utilitarian in the sense of complementarity of national resources with regional expansion towards a national defense to a regional defense. This can be configured in the current circumstances of peace and regional cooperation that is unprecedented, driven by the United Nations 60 years ago but made effective in the last 20 in the region, as noted in the General Assembly in 2005, "In a world where they live globalization and interdependence, no state can stand wholly alone. We acknowledge that collective security depends on effective cooperation that, in accordance with international law, against transnational threats. " We refer here to these threats that transcend borders (today's globalized terrorism, immigration, drug trafficking, organized crime, etc), so the importance of regional and multilateral cooperation.
Argentina has lost prominence in international politics, that initially the creation of forces for peace operations, UN instrument for preserving peace and security and rapid deployment, went hand in hand with a nation's aspiration to a possible reform of the Security Council to win a permanent seat, an aspiration that fell into the hands of regional giant Brazil, which has done its homework on the subject in an impeccable to ensure that post and the role that means in terms of regional security.
In conclusion with respect to that referred to peace operations, the joint forces with Chile's Cruz del Sur, or the training given to troops CAECOPAZ joint (Argentine Joint Training Center for Peacekeeping Operations), change of logic cooperative defense policy, which is ultimately part of the definition of security given in Mexico.
As has been expanding security in a positive manner to recognize non-state actors, and regionalization from a new approach to cooperation with neighboring countries overcome the conflict hypothesis, in regard to safety military and civil defense, the definition of Mexico distorts and obscures the approach than the strategy and policies in this area must have a logical and integral cross with other government ministries, losing strength and measurability of the effectiveness of measures taken regard. Especially when Argentina has not been alien to the threats of terrorist forces have taken dominance on the agenda of global security, and arms trafficking or drug trafficking or human trafficking and other issues affecting a greater or lesser extent, security and strategic interests.
However, we can not lose sight of the contributions of institutionalists that education for peace and the promotion of democratic culture, social justice and human development, as new elements to take into account in national defense policy for institutional stability.
- Document of the OAS / Ser.K / XXXVIII of the Special Conference on Security.
- Report www.mindef.gov.ar / mission% 20of% 20paz/CRUZ% 20of% 20SUR.doc
- http://www.mindef.gov.ar/presupuesto.html
- A/RES/60/1 October 24, 2005.
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